Author: Cai Tiancheng
(Illustration / Ho Hon Chung)
The US aircraft carrier battle group and the Italian Navy cruised in the Red Sea on 7 May to protect the safety and unimpeded passage of international waters. (AFP)
The Al-Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza has been heavily bombarded by Israeli forces, and many buildings have been damaged. (AFP)
In today's world, there are many problems and challenges, and the United States can no longer turn things around on its own, but must rely on the concerted efforts of other countries. Such a situation provides an opportunity for regional powers to exert their influence in a multipolar world. For its part, the United States will have to adapt to the new world.
A recent analysis in the New York Times said that more than 100 current and former officials of the United States and Indo-Pacific countries interviewed by the New York Times in the past year believe that the next century should not be dominated by the United States as it was in the previous century. U.S. influence has been eroded by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the rise of China, and internal divisions.
The analysis points out that the world situation has changed, and more and more countries are strong enough to influence the course of events. The United States is adapting to work with other countries in a more humble way.
Associate Professor Huang Haitao, director of the Center for American Studies at Nankai University in China, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that looking back on history, no country can dominate global affairs, and the situation after the Cold War is quite special. The peak of relative power in the United States was in the early years after World War II, when the United States was undoubtedly a superpower in terms of industrial production, gold reserves, and monopoly on the atomic bomb. But it was not until after the Cold War, when the liberal strategy of the United States accelerated globalization, that the United States became the single dominant power.
"This is not largely because the U.S. economy and military power was strong enough to dominate everything at the time......," Huang said The power vacuum created by the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union opened up the possibility for the United States to expand its global influence without barriers. ”
However, the influence that the United States has gained since the Cold War has to some extent surpassed its true strength, and maintaining influence that does not match its strength will overdraw resources and provoke a backlash. Huang Haitao said: "After Trump took office, a series of actions were to use an extremely drastic way to say no to the past liberal internationalist strategy of the United States from within. It is not so much that the United States is losing its dominant position, but that the international political landscape is slowly returning to normal. ”
Huang Haitao said: The influence that the United States has gained since the Cold War has surpassed its true strength to a certain extent. (Provided by the interviewee)
Gerard Toal, a professor of international affairs at Virginia Tech, agrees that the United States will not dominate the world in the next century. However, he pointed out that the United States is still strong, and cross-border issues involving many countries, such as global security or climate change, still need to be led by the United States in the middle and bring all countries together to deal with them.
In an interview with Lianhe Zaobao, Thor said: "There is no doubt that the United States will not be as dominant in the next hundred years as it has been since 1945. However, I don't think that great power competition is determined by the number of points alone, as is the case in the Premier League, and that is not the right way to look at world politics. ”
He noted that the U.S. still has strengths, and that it has always been able to attract and benefit from immigrant talent from around the world. Few countries have the same talent as the United States, which is one of the factors that makes it difficult for the United States to be replicated by other countries.
In Huang Haitao's view, on the whole, the United States still has a relatively advantageous position in terms of military strength, economic vitality, and scientific and technological innovation capabilities for a considerable period of time, "which ensures that the status and role of the United States as a great power will not undergo major changes."
Toll said that the United States still has great power, and world problems involving many countries still need the United States to win over various countries to deal with them together. (Provided by the interviewee)
The dollar guarantees the influence of the United States
The U.S. dollar remains the most influential world currency in circulation. Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote an article in the Foreign Affairs magazine of the Council on Foreign Relations in the middle of this month, pointing out that the dollar will maintain its global hegemony and thus safeguard the influence of the United States.
Economic and geopolitical turmoil and people are more concerned about the stability of their investments, Prasad said, and eventually investors will hold the dollar, which is still the most trusted currency. In contrast, China and India, which have become economic powerhouses, have not seen a boom in the international market for the renminbi and the rupee.
He believes that the most important factor affecting the status of the dollar is not the strength of the United States, but whether other countries are worse off than the United States. "Unless that changes one day, don't expect the dollar to fall, no matter how big a political and diplomatic mistake the United States may have."
The confrontation between China and the United States and Russia, and the indirect confrontation between the United States and Russia through the war in Ukraine, the world seems to have formed a new confrontation between two camps. The Israeli-Kazakh conflict has brought new troubles to the United States, as well as domestic political divisions, which have left US President Joe Biden busy. In addition, the world today is facing many challenges, including climate change, artificial intelligence, food and oil supply, and other major issues that affect the world.
Such turbulent times have given regional powers the opportunity to play a greater role, catalyzed the formation of a multi-level world, and also meant that competition between countries will intensify. Whether this will lead to more wars depends on the wisdom of the leaders.
Huang Haitao pointed out that it is unlikely that the big powers with a small difference in strength will meet each other in arms, but the possibility of the big powers resorting to force against small and medium-sized countries and between small and medium-sized countries will increase, which is a characteristic of international security in a period of turbulence and change. The political conviction of world leaders and the choice between war and peace will therefore continue to play a key role.
Countries in the emerging region do not choose sides, balance diplomacy and protect their own interests
India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and South Africa have made their mark on the international scene in recent years. On the way to the rise, they have tried to balance diplomacy and seek not to favor the United States or China in order to protect their interests to the greatest extent.
India aspires to become a developed country by 2047
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India became the world's fifth-largest economy last year. Many analysts predict that in a few years, India could become the world's third-largest economy after the United States and China. Modi has set India a vision of becoming a developed country by 2047, the 100th anniversary of India's independence.
India is becoming more active on the international stage, deepening strategic cooperation with Europe, the United States and Western countries, interacting frequently with the Global South, and expanding its power with the help of the G20 and the Non-Aligned Movement. For many years, India has pursued a policy of strategic autonomy and has not favored any major powers.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to develop India into a developed country and enter the ranks of world powers. Pictured is Mumbai's financial district. (Reuters)
Saudi Arabia is a major advocate for economic reforms
One of Saudi Arabia's most important tasks in the last 10 years has been to reform the economy. Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed, unveiled Vision 2030 in 2016, seeking to become an economic powerhouse away from its high dependence on oil. In 2021, Saudi Arabia announced the development of a new Future City area (NEOM) in the north, creating a US$500 billion (S$676 billion) zero-carbon city with a length of 170 kilometers.
China is Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner, and the two countries have been strengthening their economic and trade relations in recent years. In June last year, Saudi Arabia held the China-Arab Cooperation Forum in Riyadh, the capital, and signed a $10 billion investment agreement with China on the first day.
Saudi Arabia has carried out economic reforms and actively promoted international trade. The country's Future Aviation Forum was held in the capital Riyadh in May this year. (AFP)
Dr. Mustafa Izzuddin, a researcher at the National University of Singapore, said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that Saudi Arabia's clear advantage is that it is a wealthy country, and with streamlined and centralized decision-making, it can quickly implement various reform programs.
However, the pace of economic reform in Saudi Arabia appears to be slower than originally thought. "The litmus test of the success of economic reforms will depend on the success of the Saudi royal leadership in diversifying the economy, boosting investor confidence, attracting foreign companies, ensuring political stability, and creating jobs for young people and meeting the demands of young people," Mustafa said. ”
He pointed out that Saudi Arabia is the mainstay of the Middle East and will continue to exert influence on the development of the Middle East in order to maintain its leading position in the Arab world. Beyond the Middle East, Saudi Arabia will continue to use its influence on international affairs to ensure that Saudi Arabia and the Muslim world are not threatened.
Mustafa said Saudi Arabia will continue to exert influence on developments in the Middle East to maintain its leadership in the Arab world. (Provided by the interviewee)
Brazil has ambitions to enter the world stage
Brazil, a major South American country, has been active in diplomacy in the past two years, and although it lacks economic power, its ambition to show the influence of a regional power and enter the world stage is becoming increasingly obvious.
Brazil, which holds this year's G20 presidency, has pledged to work on three pillars: global governance reform, the fight against hunger, poverty and inequality, and sustainable development.
Brazil has also been more vocal in international affairs. In February, Brazil slammed the UN Security Council for inaction on major international issues such as the war in Gaza and Ukraine. In the same month, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva compared Israel's military operation in Gaza to the Nazi Holocaust while attending an African Union summit in Ethiopia, causing strong resentment in Israel and labeling Lula persona non grata.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula's harsh criticism of Israel on the humanitarian issue in Gaza has aroused strong dissatisfaction in Israel. (Reuters)
Christopher S. Chivvis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a U.S. foreign policy think tank, said in an article published on the institute's website late last year that Brazil hopes to avoid a world order built only by great power competition, and it prefers to see a multipolar order that allows countries to have more say and greater overall influence in the international arena.
"In Brazil's view, the emergence of new powers, especially China, heralds the dawn of an era of 'virtuous multipolarity,' in which the power of the West is weakened and the influence of emerging countries increases," Chifwis wrote. ”
South Africa amplifies African voices in a high-profile manner
South Africa filed a complaint with the International Court of Justice in The Hague last year, accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza. South Africa has chosen to take a high-profile action to take a stand on the conflict and raise concern.
In January of this year, the International Court of Justice issued binding interim measures requiring Israel to make every effort to prevent genocide and to allow aid into Gaza during its offensive against Gaza. After Israel continued its assault on Gaza, ignoring the verdict, South Africa once again asked the International Court of Justice to stop Israel's military operations and to put pressure on Israel through the International Court of Justice.
South Africa would like to see multiple centres of power emerge in the world to give developing countries a voice. (AFP)
South Africa led a seven-nation African peace delegation to Ukraine and Russia in June last year. That peace brokerage, while unsuccessful, was the first time that an African leader had collectively launched an international peace operation outside the continent.
Zainab Usman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Institution, wrote that South Africa believes that the ideal world order will not return to the bipolar pattern of the Cold War era, nor will it be the unipolar pattern of the post-Cold War era. South Africa would like to see multiple centres of power emerge in the world, giving a voice to the weaker developing countries.
The expansion of BRICS power shakes the dominant system of the West?
India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and South Africa are all members of the BRICS, and many countries have recently expressed interest in joining BRICS. This means that the influence of the BRICS camp is likely to expand further in the future, and it will become an alternative to the Western-dominated system.
The BRICS expanded its roster in January to include Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia, bringing it to 10 members. The expansion is seen as the result of efforts by China, the most powerful of the BRICS countries.
More than 40 countries are already reported interested in joining BRICS. Recent formal applications or expressions of interest include Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam in Southeast Asia.
Prior to Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang's visit to Malaysia, Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said in an interview with Chinese media on the 13th of this month that Malaysia would soon start the formal process of joining the BRICS. Thailand has submitted its application to join the BRICS on the 11th of this month.
Bloomberg analysis said that many Southeast Asian countries are economically dependent on trade with China, but at the same time support the United States to provide security guarantees and increase investment in the region. In an environment of increasingly fierce competition between China and the United States, joining the BRICS is an attempt to defuse tensions.
BRICS countries have been expanding their engagement, and this month it invited 12 countries, including Turkey, Vietnam, Laos, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Kazakhstan, Cuba and Venezuela, to send representatives to the BRICS Dialogue in Russia. BRICS countries also plan to invite non-members to a summit in Kazan, Russia, in October.
The West has long been wary of the BRICS, which includes China and Russia, fearing that it could pose a challenge to the Western-dominated international order.
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) of the United States analyzed that the expansion of the BRICS countries not only challenges the dominance of global institutions strongly influenced by the West, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, but also weakens the influence of the G20. However, the BRICS forums have created an opportunity for emerging markets to reach consensus on global issues and new opportunities for promoting common economic development and growth.