On June 28, the war in Ukraine reached its 856th day.
More than 1 million troops on both sides of Russia and Ukraine have fought 140 battles large and small, and air raids behind enemy lines are also continuing. However, due to the length of the battle line of thousands of kilometers, although the two sides were fighting a number of urban battles with tens of thousands of participants, the battle line did not change much on that day.
The biggest change on the front of the day occurred in the Seversk direction in the central Donbass theater: the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of the village of Razdolovka, north of Soledar. About half a month ago, the Russian army began an offensive against Seversk from the south and east. Since Seversk is the eastern gate of Slavyansk, where the Ukrainian army is the former commander, and the Ukrainian army has a relatively strong defensive force, therefore, after more than ten days of attack, the Russian army finally captured the village of Razdolovka, which is about 13 kilometers from the center of Seversk in the south.
In addition, the results of the Russian army's offensive in Krasnogorovka are also highlighted: under the slow but resolute demolition attack of the Russian army, except for the northern part of the city, which is still the position of the Ukrainian army, most of the urban area is under the control of the Russian army. So much so that a Ukrainian army commander codenamed "Alex" openly complained: "For more than half a year, the fighting in Krasnogorovka has been dull but cruel and abnormal, but Kyiv has refused to pay attention to and report on the fighting here at all." ”
Indeed, Kyiv has been concerned about only two theaters of war lately: Lipzen, where a counterattack is brewing in the battle for the Kharkiv border in the north, and the city of Toletsk, where the outer front is easily broken through by the Russian army. Now, the Ukrainian army is still mobilizing reserves in the direction of Lipzen, and in order to stabilize the situation in the city of Toretsk, the Ukrainian army removed Lieutenant General Sodori, the commander of the Eastern Front of Ukraine, who was previously responsible for this, and Brigadier General Gnatov took the position.
It's a pity that not every change of hands is like a change of knife, on June 28, the reality that the Russian army has broken into New York Town, a southern suburb of Toretsk City, has made the new commander of the Ukrainian army face a dilemma: New York Town is low, if you defend it, you will lose a large number of troops; If you give up, you will have to slap you in the face at the upcoming NATO-US summit on July 9.
The upcoming NATO summit will determine Kyiv's fate in the second half of the year – and indeed the entire war in Ukraine. The main reason for saying this is that on June 28, the first election debate between Biden and Trump was held in the United States that night. One of those topics is Ukraine. Trump has made it clear that Russian forces are capable of capturing all of Ukraine. In other words, Trump is able to tolerate the occupation of all of Ukraine by Russian troops. This is definitely not good news for Zelensky and other senior Kyiv officials. After all, looking at Trump's relatively excellent performance in the debate, Kiev needs to be ready now, and the president of the United States, may become a person who has repeatedly opposed military and financial assistance to Ukraine.
As the brightest star on the stage of the war in Ukraine, Zelensky also understands that although you sing and I appear, after all, there is no unbroken feast in the world, and there is no unending performance in the world. Therefore, in the context of Trump's election favor, on June 28, Zelensky made it clear for the first time that he would make a plan to end the war this year.
If Trump, who doesn't want Ukraine to fight to the last man, becomes president, Zelensky just wants to stick to the war, after all, whether it is economic or military, Kyiv will be unsustainable. Therefore, there is not much time left for Zelensky, and the second half of 2024 is destined to be his last glory as the brightest star of the war in Ukraine.
In order to leave the field with dignity, or even get the opportunity to return to the court, he must make the Ukrainian army play a special momentum in the next six months! It is necessary to make the planned summer counteroffensive a victory that NATO can appreciate!
If the Ukrainian army wants to fight beautifully, it cannot do without NATO's military aid, let alone NATO's intelligence support. However, on 28 June, Russia's new defense minister, Belousov, had already clearly ordered the General Staff of the Russian army to come up with measures against US unmanned reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea. This is actually a hole that has been given to the Russian army: it can attack NATO drones that provide intelligence support for the Ukrainian army over the Black Sea.
To tell the truth, the Russian army, which was hit red in the eye by NATO weapons, has long been extremely resentful of NATO. Now don't say that it is fighting drones, that is, fighting manned aircraft, which should also be something that the Russian army has wanted to do for a long time. After all, NATO's conventional forces are several times that of the Russian army, and if you don't play some desperate and ruthless work, after fighting Ukraine, the United States will still force European countries to go up, so fighting NATO as soon as possible and deciding life and death as soon as possible is actually a way to end the war quickly.
In fact, the Ukrainian army is also in the same door, as long as it can pull NATO to the end and Russia as soon as possible, the Ukrainian army will not hesitate at all, so recently, Ukrainian radicals have begun to appear on the border between Ukraine and Belarus, which makes the Belarusian side attach great importance to it. Obviously, as long as the summer counteroffensive division of the Ukrainian army is unfavorable, someone in Kyiv will find ways to provoke Belarus to enter the war. After all, the larger the scale of the war in Ukraine, the faster NATO will end up and Russia will be on life and death.
In fact, both Russia and NATO have their own "war factions". Russia's "warfarers" believe that only a direct war with NATO can reshape the international order or obtain from NATO the strategic concessions that Russia demands. NATO's "war faction" believes that the Russian army will not really work hard, so there is no need to worry about sending troops to Ukraine, blockading Russian ports and entering into a direct military conflict with Russia. In other words, the war factions on both sides are assuming that the opponent will back down because they dare not play the big killing weapon. However, if this miscalculation occurs, it will be human civilization that will be threatened.