The national football team drew the "Group of Death" to sign it? From another point of view, this is not a good sign

Brother Bao loves football

2024-06-27 23:03

The draw for the round of 18 of the 2026 World Cup in Asia has been announced, and as the fifth pot, the national football team is in the same group as Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Indonesia. In addition to Bahrain, Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia are almost the strongest teams in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th pots, and the national football team is also the world's highest-ranked team in the fifth pot, and the "Group of Death" is worthy of its name. However, if you look at it from another angle, this is not a good sign.

First of all, even if Asia has 8.5 places, as the 13th ranked national football team in the Asian world, with the current strength of the national football team, even if a relatively good draw is drawn, it is difficult to say how much hope there is to advance. There is a saying that for the national football team, the top 18 matches are the highest level of competition that the national football team can participate in, and it is the World Cup of the national football team. Japan and Australia are both teams that can qualify for the 2022 World Cup group, representing the highest level of Asian football, and Saudi Arabia is also a regular at the World Cup. Playing two legs with a team like this is six high-level games for three teams, which is far more valuable than playing 10 games against teams like Thailand and Singapore.

Secondly, let's look at the possibility of qualifying. Bao Ge believes that the national football team has a greater chance of qualifying in the so-called "group of death" than in the seemingly easier group such as "South Korea, Iraq, Jordan, Oman and Kuwait". As for why? Let's start with the format of the round of 18. According to the competition system formulated by the AFC, the round of 18 is divided into 3 groups, with 6 teams in each group playing a two-legged round-robin match of home and away, and after 10 rounds, the top two teams in each group will qualify for the 2026 World Cup; A total of 6 teams from the 3rd to 4th teams in each group will enter the fourth stage of the competition, which will be divided into two groups, with 3 teams in each group, and a single round-robin match will be played at a neutral venue, and the first team in each group will qualify for the 2026 World Cup; In the fourth group stage, the two second-placed teams play home and away, with the winner securing the final half of the place and going to the intercontinental play-offs.

The main reason for thinking that the current grouping of the national football team is the "group of death" is that Japan, Australia and Saudi Arabia are the strongest teams in the first three pots, and Indonesia is the strongest team in the sixth pot, which is true, but is this contradictory to the goal of the national football team to impact the World Cup? Before answering this question, we must first figure out what is the specific strategy of the national football team to impact the World Cup? If you think that the specific strategy of the national football team to attack the World Cup is to strive to get the top two in the group and get a place in the World Cup final in the third stage, then the current group is indeed a bad "group of death".

However, Brother Bao believes that even if the top three teams are divided into the three weakest teams in theory or the three teams with the lowest ranking in the world, South Korea, Iraq and Jordan, will the national football team have any hope of winning the top two in the group? Needless to say, South Korea completely beat the national football team in the second stage and couldn't find the north; Iraq, even at the peak of the national football team 20 years ago, may not be able to win the opponent, let alone the current Iraq, which can defeat Japan 2:1, Vietnam 3:1, and the Philippines 5:0 in the group stage of the Asian Cup. Jordan, this is a ruthless man who can beat Iraq 3-2 and South Korea 2-0 in the Asian Cup. Therefore, with the strength of the national football team, no matter which group you are divided into in the top 18, if you want to qualify directly as the top two in the group, this possibility cannot be said to be completely impossible, but it is not far behind.

Brother Bao believes that if the national football team wants to qualify for the 2026 World Cup finals, the most realistic strategy is to win the 3rd-4th place in the group stage of the round of 18, to be precise, the 4th place, and enter the fourth stage; Then he won the first place in the group stage in the fourth stage and entered the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Under this strategy, what the national football team has to compete for in the group stage of the round of 18 is the 4th place in the group, and the direct competitors are not the top three teams in the group, but the 4th and 6th teams. If you think about it this way, the current grouping is not a good sign for the national football team.

Since the main opponent is not the top 3 teams in the group, and even has been prepared to score fewer points or even no points on these 3 opponents, then the top 3 teams are naturally as strong as possible, and the national football team will not get points, and the team in Pot 4 and Pot 6 will not get points. At that time, the national football team only needs to score more points in the direct competition with the teams in Pot 4 and Pot 6.

Let's take a look at it again, the Japanese team has played Bahrain in the last 6 times, with a record of 5 wins and 1 loss; Japan has played Indonesia in the last 1 time, winning 3:1; The Japanese team has played the national football team in the last 4 times, with a record of 4 wins and 2 draws. Australia have won all six of their last six meetings with Bahrain; Australia have played Indonesia in the last 4 times, with a record of 3 wins and 1 draw; Australia have played the national football team in the last 6 times, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. Saudi Arabia has played Bahrain in the last 6 times, with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses; Saudi Arabia has played Indonesia in the last 6 times, with a record of 5 wins and 1 draw; Saudi Arabia has played the national football team in the last 6 times, with a record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. If you look at these head-to-head records in recent years, Bahrain and Indonesia are less likely to score points against Japan, Australia and Saudi Arabia.

Let's look at the direct battle records of the national football team with Bahrain and Indonesia. The national football team has played Bahrain in the last 3 times, all of which have been drawn; The national football team has played Indonesia in the last 5 times, with a record of 4 wins and 1 draw to remain unbeaten. Judging from the historical record, the national football team is not afraid of Bahrain and Indonesia at all. Of course, if someone wants to say that Bahrain and Indonesia have improved significantly in recent years, especially Indonesia, and the national football team has been regressing, then it is the same in any group, Asian football has been improving in recent years, with the exception of the national football team.

Finally, it should also be noted that in recent years, the progress of West Asian football has been particularly obvious, and the voice in the AFC is becoming more and more important, if the national football team is divided into a group with more West Asian teams, it is more likely to be affected by off-field factors and tacit understanding with the team in the same group, and the national football team is currently in the group only Saudi Arabia and Bahrain two West Asian teams, which are the least affected. Group A has three West Asian teams, Iran, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as well as two Central Asian teams from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, whose style of play is restrained by the national football team; Group B has South Korea's nemesis, as well as Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Palestine and Kuwait 5 West Asian teams, if the national football team replaces Palestine in this group, it is the real "group of death".

Therefore, Brother Bao believes that with the current strength of the national football team, no matter which group it is divided into, it may be a "group of death" for the national football team. The above is only Brother Bao's personal opinion, fans and friends are welcome to discuss together, don't spray if you don't like it.

Note: The picture comes from the Internet.

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