#你家谁辅导孩子#
For example, a cement plant has a backward production capacity of 40 million tons.
Now, in order to eliminate backward production capacity, the state has given policies
For every 10,000 tons eliminated, a new 10,000 tons can be built, which is the same amount of capacity replacement, and if it is a replacement of 8,000 tons, this is the reduction of capacity replacement.
In this way, industrial upgrading can be achieved
Note that the policy stipulates that new production capacity is strictly prohibited, but capacity can be replaced, and after 2017, the capacity can only be replaced under the same circumstances as the actual controller
That is to say, if whoever has more production capacity in 2017 will have more market share, and if you want to add new production capacity in disguise, you can only do it through mergers and acquisitions.
As a result, mergers and acquisitions in the cement industry intensified at this stage.
For example, Huaxin Cement integrated Lafarge Rui'an, China National Building Materials and Sinoma reorganized, and Jinyu Jidong reorganized
In 2017, the market share of the top ten domestic cement was 58%, compared with about 30% in 2012, which was doubled
Conch's market share has also further increased, rising to 11%.
Industry concentration has increased, and prices have begun to return.
In terms of the cement index, it rose from 78 points to 150 points at the end of 2017, an increase of 92.3% in two years, nearly doubling
In 2016 and 2017, the growth rate of net profit once again exceeded the growth rate of revenue, and ROE also increased.
Finally, from the perspective of stock price, the stock price has an obvious upward trend, from the lowest point of 10.37 yuan/share to 39.88 yuan/share, an increase of 285%, and created a record high.
Not only has it risen to an all-time high, but if you pull out its 2018 year-to-date stock price, the stock price has risen by 11.94%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by -21.62% over the same period
It shows that this wave of market is still rising against the trend.
A detail worth thinking about carefully is that despite the recovery of cement prices, the recovery of performance, and the sharp rise in stock prices, the PB multiples and PE multiples at this stage are lower than those in the previous stage
What is the reason why PE has dropped from 30x to 10x, PB from 2-4x to 1-2x?
There is also a question, Conch Cement has risen sharply against the trend this year, so what is its current valuation?
For Conch Cement, its expenditure on the purchase of fixed assets in the past five years has been in negative growth, and its free cash flow has been growing
Here, again, we value it based on free cash flow
Why does it apply? Because vitamins (Xinhecheng), pesticides (Yangnong Chemical), MDI (Wanhua Chemical), cement (conch cement), glass fiber (China Boulder) and other raw material industries close to the downstream
Although there is a cycle, because the downstream application scenarios are too wide, as long as it is an industry giant, years of growth can still be expected
As long as the cycle is reasonably smoothed and the parameters are adjusted, the discounted cash flow can still be used for valuation.
After explaining the above logic, let's look at the growth rate - from the historical growth rate, institutional forecast growth rate, and endogenous growth rate
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market