1. The number of closed stores is higher than the number of stores opened! Hot pot gradually "cools down"
2. The performance of high-priced hot pot has generally declined seriously
3. In the second half, 4 opportunities for the hot pot industry
Issue 1623
Sentence | Hoshino
According to the data of enterprise inspection, in January ~ May 2024, a total of 22,600 hotpot-related enterprises will be newly registered, and 26,600 will be cancelled and revoked. Specifically, the number of stores closed exceeds the number of stores opened, especially in March and April, when nearly 7,000 companies closed stores.
Looking back at last year's data, in 2023, the number of new hot pot enterprises in the country will be the highest in four years, reaching 81,000, and 37,000 will be cancelled and revoked. It can be interpreted that it is more rational to open stores in 2024, but the speed of store closure is much faster than last year.
The opening of the hot pot restaurant has "cooled down".
The days of high-priced hot pot are not easy
1. The speed of hot pot opening has slowed down, and big brands are no exception
Many big brands have slowed down significantly since the beginning of this year.
According to the observation of a Chongqing hot pot owner, "the number of stores opened this year is estimated to be much smaller than last year".
Relevant data shows that from 2024 to the present, there are 500+ stores in operation of a top hot pot, of which 30+ are newly opened, and 50+ new stores have been closed, and the number of stores closed in the first 5 months of this year has exceeded that of last year.
Due to the impact of the economic environment, while the cost of labor and rent is also rising, a fresh hot pot in Hangzhou, once known as the "leader of the Hangzhou hot pot industry", has also experienced a stressful year in 2023, closing 9 stores to shrink its scale.
2. Stores with high customer unit prices have experienced a sharp decline in performance
As the cost of raw materials, rent, labor and other costs continues to rise, the profit margin of any food and beverage category tends to decline.
In the community where Zenmi-kun lives, when three small hot pot restaurants of different brands suddenly opened at once this year, the direction of the wind has actually changed. Those small hot pot restaurants with market style and stall style are scattered on the streets, with smaller stores and fewer employees, focusing on an asset-light and down-to-earth atmosphere.
◎The evening market is crowded, and the hot pot meal is photographed
Consumers' money bags are getting tighter and tighter, and their resistance to high-priced hot pot has also forced high-priced hot pot to put down their bodies and bow their heads to transform.
In particular, "Xufu Niu", according to public information, Xufu Niu did not move much in 2021 and 2022, but in 2023, it will have a net increase of 660 in a single year, becoming the first place in the net growth of hot pot, which is based on the per capita customer unit price of 60, and the store closure rate is 1.7%.
3. The number of investment and financing in the hot pot track has decreased as a whole
The catering industry has gone from having no capital to the capital storm in 2021, and now China's consumer capital market has once again entered a frozen period.
According to incomplete statistics from the Dining Data Research Institute, there will be a total of 132 financing events in the catering industry in 2023. However, after comparison and screening, 48 of them had "flaws", and finally sorted out 84 financing events. Including 62 restaurant chains and 22 supply chains and service providers.
From the track point of view, tea and coffee still occupy the majority, with 15 and 12 respectively, and snacks have 11. Western food and baking received less financing last year, and projects related to health and light food were more favored by capital. There was only 1 hot pot investment and financing.
The hot pot is shuffled in large quantities
4 trends are on the horizon
1. The head brand reshapes the price, and the small brand is reshuffled in large quantities
With the further intensification of competition, the scale effect of the brand will become more and more obvious. The head brand is sinking in a "horse race" style, and it is also fighting a price war, further squeezing the living space of the middle and tail brands.
This year, it is obvious that the battle for franchisees tends to be white-hot, and many brands have accelerated the seizure of the market through strategies such as "0 yuan to join", "installment payment" and "small store type" to reduce the threshold for opening stores.
Recently, the Chongqing Hot Pot Factory store has changed the "recognition announcement" in the store, and the new announcement content is: the bottom of the pot starts at 8.8 yuan, meat dishes start at 9.9 yuan, vegetarian dishes start at 6.6 yuan, and stewed rice is 6 yuan for all-you-can-eat.
◎ Confession announcement
Another example is Luckin's 9.9 yuan activity, which has changed many consumers' perception of coffee to a considerable extent, coffee is not all "high-end products" that sell about 30 yuan, and many small and medium-sized coffee brands are also inferior to "9.9 yuan" and have been reshuffled in large quantities.
2. One up, one down, the market is being divided
I don't know if you have noticed that the hot pot market is gradually differentiating and distinct.
In the Northeast and North China markets, the northern hot pot represented by Xiong Meow, Aguang Hot Pot Bureau, and Fangzhuyuan is rising, and they focus on high cost performance, accelerate their expansion in the contrarian trend, and expand their business territory.
According to the insight, many of these brands have the same single product supplier, that is, "the No. 1 shrimp slipper sales in the country". It is understood that the shrimp is backed by the self-built shrimp slip intelligent manufacturing factory in Beihai, integrating the development of procurement, research, production and marketing, and polishing a mature supply chain system with the advantage of scale and efficiency, realizing the leading total cost, and the shrimp slippery ingredients are safe, stable in quality, and super cost-effective. Moreover, Xiong Meow has been closely hugging and co-creating with Catch Shrimp for 3 consecutive years, and the models have sold out.
In the East China, Central China, and South China markets, represented by brands such as Sanchushan, Shanshuan, and Zuoting and Right Courtyard, the main original ecology + products focus on freshness.
For example, the first two brands have a nice name, both called "Shanye Hot Pot", in a short period of time, many stores rushed to the "No. 1" position on the review list, and the Shanye hot pot industry in many places has also become the new hot pot queue king.
◎A certain brand of mountain hot pot
At present, these two types of hot pot forms are eating away at the market share, both of which are light pot bottoms, and reconstruct the customer order structure from the bottom per capita and Sichuan-Chongqing hot pot sub-markets.
3. Young people pursue local cultural self-confidence and brand sinking
Not long ago, official data showed that catering revenue in Beijing and Shanghai showed negative growth. In fact, the cost and competition in first-tier cities are higher, and it is not a paradise for entrepreneurs, but may be a "mass grave" and "collective crematorium" for entrepreneurs.
In the future, the growth point of the catering industry will be more concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities and rural areas. Many people in the industry sighed: the sinking market may be the last incremental market in China.
For example, Bazhuang Chongqing hot pot has been deeply cultivating the county economy over the years, and has always adhered to the strategy of "not entering the provincial capital" and resolutely being the "king of county hot pot"; Like fish with you again, it is reported that the business of the stores opened in the township market is even better than that opened in Beijing.
In a sense, young local consumers are increasingly keen on brands that focus on local ingredients and culture. Therefore, the hot pot category with the region as the incision and the main original flavor has the opportunity to sweep the country.
4. The trend of hot pot fast food is obvious, which requires both efficiency and value
Hot pot has been working hard to become "fast": first, the hot pot category has evolved towards "fast, easy to eat, and cost-effective"; the second is the rise of affordable small hot pot, and more and more brands are eyeing the category of small hot pot; The third is the small-portion, self-service, and price parity of the dishes.
A member of the Restaurant Creation Federation provided clues, saying that the local opened a small hot pot located in a late-night canteen, next door is selling craft beer (guess it is a boss's industry), the small hot pot is mainly a set meal model, the quality of the dishes is also passable, and the customer list is 25-30 yuan. It was late at night, and the outside area was full of young people.
◎ Late-night small hot pot menu, taken by members of the Dining Alliance
For example, Sheng Xiangting does not set up posts according to the front hall and back kitchen, everyone must go to work, and a lot of part-time jobs are used; There is no operation of cooking food in the whole store, and the standard is higher; Arrange tissues and chopsticks in the seat drawer so that customers can easily reach them.
This kind of hot pot needs to try to balance the two dimensions of efficiency and experience - not only to be efficient, but also to retain a sense of value and experience.
What other insights do you have on the future development trend of hot pot?