As we mentioned in the previous program, Trump won a resounding victory in the first round of the TV debate of the U.S. presidential election on the evening of June 27, and it must be not only the Democratic Party of the United States that is bad now, but also the close allies of the United States. Because once Trump returns, the United States will return to isolationism, and those countries that are usually highly dependent on the United States will most likely be decisively abandoned by Trump if they do not get enough benefits, especially Ukraine.
Biden is doing badly
According to the global network, on June 28, local time, Zelensky said at a press conference that he did not want the conflict to continue for a long time and that a just peace must be achieved as soon as possible, so he intends to launch a peace plan that has been "supported by most countries in the world", and is expected to hold a peace conference, and Russia may be invited to participate at that time. Zelensky also stressed that while seeking a diplomatic solution, it is necessary to strengthen its military strength, because Russia only knows how to use force and respects only the strong. Ukraine will not cede land and will not surrender.
Zelensky's rush to end the conflict is clearly directly related to these two factors. On the one hand, the situation on the battlefield is moving in a direction that is becoming more and more unfavorable for Ukraine. Although the United States and the West can provide a lot of weapons assistance, what Ukraine lacks most now is the supply of soldiers. With a long line of contact, the line can easily collapse at the touch of a button if there are not enough troops. In addition, although the United States allows Ukraine to use weapons and equipment aided by the United States to attack the Russian mainland, this is not necessarily good news for Ukraine. Because no matter which forces carry out an attack on Russian soil, it is very likely that the final account will be settled on the heads of the Kyiv authorities.
Zelensky
On the other hand, the U.S. election situation is uncertain. It is a well-established fact that Trump defeated Biden in the first televised debate. Before that, the two men had similar approval ratings, but it is believed that after a few rounds of televised debates, the election results in many swing states will move in favor of Trump. Once Trump comes to power, it will undoubtedly be extremely bad news for the Kiev authorities.
In this debate, Trump and Biden mentioned the issue of Ukraine. Trump bluntly said that Ukraine cannot win this war because they face the dilemma of running out of manpower. Ukraine has lost a lot of people and historical buildings, it's a tragedy, and Biden is to blame for all this. He promised to end the conflict as soon as possible if he won the election.
Trump
The support of the United States is the basis for the Ukrainian army to be able to confront the Russian army for a long time. Therefore, the outcome of the U.S. election will directly affect the trend of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and it is also the biggest bargaining chip for the Kyiv authorities in the face of Russia. Therefore, Zelensky wants to take advantage of the fact that the election results are still undecided, and he still has enough bargaining chips to finalize peace talks with Russia.
In fact, on the issue of peace talks, Russia and Ukraine have recently expressed their official positions, but the differences are still obvious, especially on the ownership of the four places in eastern Ukraine. Earlier, the four regions of eastern Ukraine were annexed to Russia through the so-called "independence referendum", but the Kiev authorities refused to cede the land and did not recognize that the four regions of eastern Ukraine belonged to Russia. So on the territorial issue, the two sides obviously cannot reach a consensus.
Putin
Of course, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is essentially the result of the concentrated outbreak of geopolitical contradictions between Russia and the United States and Europe, so the role of the United States and Europe in the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks is more important than that of Ukraine. Earlier, China stressed that building a credible and sustainable security architecture is the key to a definitive resolution of the Ukraine crisis. Therefore, in the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, Europe should also take the lead, instead of being led by the nose by the United States. It is foreseeable that before the end of the US election, the Biden administration will not only not allow the Kiev authorities to carry out peace talks with Russia, but will also try to create trouble for Russia as much as possible, so that the outside world will think that the US support for Ukraine is effective, so as to facilitate Biden to promote aid to Ukraine as a "political achievement" in the election.
In general, unless there is a major change in American politics and Biden is pulled down by Trump, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue. The spillover effects brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the past two years have profoundly affected the global economy and geopolitical situation, so for China, the direction of the Russia-Ukraine situation is very important to the mainland's diplomatic layout. While continuing to promote peace talks, we must also be prepared for the impact on China-Russia relations and even the global geopolitical pattern after Trump's comeback and the rapid end of the Russia-Ukraine situation.