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Recently, the Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk's "weight-loss version" semaglutide injection for long-term weight management was approved in China. Semaglutide, by mimicking natural hormones, regulates the body's blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. This kind of weight-loss drug has been popular in the United States since last year, what is its market size, and what impact will it have on the catering consumption of the American public?
In the United States, since the beginning of last year, a "weight-loss version" of Semaglutide under Novo Nordisk, with the trade name Novo Wegovy, and a number of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) weight loss drugs have become popular on social media. Because of their appetite-suppressant properties, Wall Street has begun to speculate that there may be a shift in consumer behavior that could have an impact on the food and beverage industry.
Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley surveyed 300 U.S. consumers who were using glucagon-like peptide-1 drugs, and the results did show a change in their diet and dining consumption habits. Sixty-three percent of respondents said they spent less on eating out each month after starting glucagon-like peptide-1 drugs; Another 61% of respondents said that the cost of ordering takeout has also decreased; Another 31% of respondents reported reducing their spending on groceries.
Consumers also said in the survey that they have reduced their intake of all types of food, especially snacks, sweets, carbonated and sugary beverages, and alcohol. About half of respondents reported a reduction of about 50% or more in their intake of soda, alcohol and salty snacks since they started using weight-loss medications.
At the earnings conference, a number of restaurant brands, including chocolate maker Hershey, PepsiCo and Nestle, were questioned by analysts that the popularity of weight-loss drugs could affect their profits. However, some F&B brands have also begun to take a different approach, changing their thinking and seeing the new trend as a new opportunity, launching healthier products for the weight loss group.
Mark Schneider, CEO, Nestlé Switzerland: During and around the use of glucagon-like peptide-1 drugs, consumers still need nutrition, but maybe they have different needs than people who haven't lost weight, so for us, this is an opportunity.
In an interview with CNBC, the former director of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration mentioned that after using weight-loss drugs, patients have reduced calorie intake, which is accompanied by insufficient intake of micronutrients and protein.
Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration: People who use weight-loss drugs don't eat enough calories, so they may have vitamin deficiencies, such as vitamin D and calcium, and people also worry that weight-loss drugs will cause musculoskeletal muscle loss.
Finally, from a macro perspective, let's look at the entire weight-loss drug market, in the weight-loss drug market, there are currently two giants, namely Denmark's Novo Nordisk and the United States' Eli Lilly. Over the past year or so, Wall Street's investment in the weight-loss drug market has also driven the stocks of both companies higher. Novo Nordisk's stock price has risen more than 80% in the past 12 months, and Eli Lilly's stock price has risen more than 96%.
Goldman Sachs recently reported that the weight-loss drug market is expected to reach $130 billion by 2030. Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for the number of U.S. adults who use weight-loss drugs for a long time to 19 million from 15 million, a figure that does not include people with type 2 diabetes.
Richard Zhou, President and CEO of Novo Nordisk AG in Denmark: There are more than 100 million people living with obesity in the United States, and this number is growing, so far, we can only serve about 1 million patients. As a result, this will open up a huge market for patients who have not been well cared for for many years.
However, it is worth noting that semaglutide has been given a black box warning by the US Food and Drug Administration, stating that there may be a link between the drug and thyroid cancer, and patients with a family history of thyroid cancer should not take the drug. In an interview with CNBC, biomedical experts also warned that there are risks associated with medication. For the general public, if there are no concerns about overweight and obesity, medication needs to be taken with caution.
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Editor: Dong Lindan