Old Zhou
Abstract: On June 23, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with Israel's Channel 14 TV that the "fierce war phase is very close to the end" against Hamas, and the next war is against Lebanese Allah.
On June 23, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with Israel's Channel 14 TV that the "fierce war phase is very close to the end" against Hamas, and the next war is against Lebanese Allah.
In an interview with Israel's Channel 14 television, Netanyahu said that the "phase of fierce fighting against Hamas is very close to the end", but stressed that "this is not to say that the war in Gaza is coming to an end". The implication is that the large-scale military operation in Gaza is coming to an end, but the hunt for revenge against Hamas's senior leaders is not over. After the terrorist attacks on Israeli athletes during the 1972 Munich Olympics, Israel launched a decade-long hunt for the leaders of the terrorist organization that planned and organized the terrorist attack, until all 11 people on the death list were killed. Obviously, this time, Israel will not spare Hamas leaders such as Sinwar and others who planned and organized the attack on Israel itself on October 7 last year.
It was Netanyahu's first interview with Israeli television since the outbreak of a new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict last October, and his remarks clearly meant that the war between Israel and Hamas was about to enter a new phase. Netanyahu also said that Israel would participate in post-war reconstruction after the end of the large-scale military operation in Gaza and would help displaced refugees return home. But at the same time, some troops will be redeployed in northern Gaza, and Hamas will be "mowed the lawn" to contain Hamas's "rebirth".
He also made it clear that the next war would be against Allah in Lebanon.
After the outbreak of a new round of Kazakh-Israeli conflict on 7 October last year, Allah immediately expressed its support for Hamez with practical actions, and the attacks on Israel hardly stopped, and the Israeli army also used heavy air strikes and artillery bombardment; in the past eight months, more than 300 Allah armed personnel have been killed in the conflict, which has exceeded the number of Allah killed in the large-scale armed conflict between Israel and Allah in 2006. Among those who died this time was Sami Abdullah, a member of the core leadership of Allah.
Especially since June, the conflict between the two sides has continued to intensify, the Israel Defense Forces have completed the deployment for battle, and the Northern Command's operational plan has been approved by the military, so it can be said that a large-scale military operation against Allah is on the way.
However, Israel's large-scale military campaign against Allah has not yet begun, and the main reason is that it is still somewhat jealous of Allah.
Allah in Lebanon was displaced by Israeli troops entering southern Lebanon in 1982 during the Fifth Middle East War. It was among these refugees that Allah was born. Therefore, from the very beginning of its establishment, Allah has taken anti-Israel as its purpose and program, and it has a high mass base in southern Lebanon.
After more than 40 years of operation and development, and with the long-term support of Iran and Syria, Allah now controls about 3,500 square kilometers around the Bekaa Valley in southern Lebanon, about one-third of all Lebanon, with a population of about 2.2 million, and is headquartered in the city of Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley, with a supreme governing body of 12 people. It is now the largest political party in Lebanon, not just a political party, but also a strong armed force.
There are different accounts of how strong the armed forces of Allah are, some say that there are 6,000 core armed personnel and 3,000 reserve armed personnel; There are also 30,000 armed men; It is even said that the total number of militias has reached 100,000. Moreover, the training and equipment are more formal than Hamas, equipped with tanks, armored vehicles, large-caliber artillery, and even short-range tactical missiles, and the number of rockets is said to exceed 100,000. And it is not a home-made rocket launcher made by Hamas, but a regular standard rocket launcher. Considered to be the most powerful non-state armed force in the Middle East and the world,
Allah and Israel have been in constant conflict for more than 40 years, and have accumulated rich experience in fighting Israel. The most recent large-scale clash was in 2006, when Israeli forces invaded southern Lebanon, killing 113 Israeli troops and losing only about 280 fighters to Allah in 43 days of fighting. Such a result was tantamount to defeat for Israel, so after the war, the commander of the Northern Military District of the Israeli army was removed from his post and the chief of the General Staff resigned.
Compared to the battle for Gaza, it is far stronger than Hamas's performance. So, that's why Israel has a positive heart for Allah.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, is now in a difficult situation, both internally and externally.
Domestically, on June 9, Gantz, the leader of Israel's largest opposition party, the National Unity Party, announced his withdrawal from the wartime cabinet. As the name suggests, the wartime cabinet is a cabinet established during a state of war, and this time Israel's wartime cabinet was established after the outbreak of the Kazakh-Israeli conflict on October 7 last year, and is composed of Netanyahu, Gantz, and Defense Minister Gallant, in addition to former Defense Force Chief of Staff Esencott and Minister of Strategic Affairs Demer as observers.
In addition to Gantz, Esencott, also of the National Solidarity Party, also announced his withdrawal from the wartime cabinet. Netanyahu announced on June 17 that he was disbanding his wartime cabinet after two emergency meetings for consultations.
But this is not to say that the Israeli government has collapsed, because the Israeli government has three cabinets, the first is the normal cabinet, which is elected by a general election, and the current Prime Minister Netanyahu won the 2022 election and was elected for a four-year term. The Cabinet is responsible for the administration of the affairs of the country as a whole.
The second is the Security Cabinet, which is composed of some members of the regular Cabinet, such as the Minister of Defense, the Minister of National Security, the Director of the Mossad, etc., and is mainly responsible for decision-making on Israel's national security affairs.
Therefore, the dissolution of the wartime cabinet, Netanyahu can still direct the war against Hamas and Allah through the normal cabinet and the security cabinet, and the impact is not too great. But this shows that Netanyahu is gradually isolated in the domestic political arena.
Internationally, there are serious differences and contradictions between Israel and the United States, the most important supporter. It was in this interview that Netanyahu expressed strong dissatisfaction with the United States. A few days ago, he also posted a video on social media in which he strongly criticized the Biden administration for cutting off almost all arms and ammunition supplies to Israel in the past four months — the U.S. government only publicly announced that it was suspending the supply of 1,000 pounds and 2,000 pounds of aerial bombs to Israel, but in fact it had stopped almost all arms and ammunition supplies. It wasn't until the past two days that Netanyahu revealed the truth.
Since this year is the year of the general election in the United States, and the general election will be held in less than half a year, Biden and the Democratic Party, which are now in power, are doing everything possible to seek stability, and do not want the situation in the Middle East to deteriorate, causing oil price fluctuations, which will have a negative impact on the US economy. Economic problems are Biden's weakness, and if the price of oil rises again, causing inflation in the United States to increase, then he will lose more supporters in the election. Therefore, the Biden administration is now trying its best to suppress Israel and not escalate the situation, and the United States has tried its best to prevent the Israeli army from launching an attack on Rafah.
Netanyahu's revelation has caused great dissatisfaction with Biden and the Democratic Party in the American Jewish community, you must know that the Jewish community has a huge influence in the political and business circles in the United States, and it is also a very important financier during the election, and their attitude will inevitably bring great pressure to Biden and the Democratic Party.
Therefore, on the issue of military strikes against Allah, the US Government has recently stated that if Allah continues to expand the scale of its attacks on Israel, causing Israeli casualties, the United States will give full support to Israel's counterattack and will be fully prepared to provide comprehensive support. With the exception of no direct contribution of ground troops, all required defence assistance will be provided to Israel.
That might be a little comforting to Netanyahu.
Besides, even without the support of the United States, with the current situation in Israel in all aspects, the war against Allah has already entered the countdown. Netanyahu is indeed determined to fight to the end, completely remove Israel's security threat, and fight for decades of peace and tranquility.
(The picture in this article comes from the Internet)
Lao Zhou, whose real name is Zhou Ming, once used the screen name Guangting, has been engaged in the study of military war history for a long time, and has served as a guest on military columns on Phoenix Satellite TV and Shanghai TV many times. He has published more than 20 military books, which can be consulted and purchased on the micro-store "Zhibingtang Bookstore" and a treasure online store "Zhibingtang Bookstore". Now there is a personal column "Lao Zhou Military" on Himalaya, which produces military audio programs. The "Old Zhou New Observation" video account has been set up on major video platforms to interpret military hot spots, please support.