A house is the ultimate goal that many people strive for. In recent years, the real estate market has developed rapidly.
However, this development also presents a dilemma: housing prices continue to rise, making it more difficult to buy a home. At the same time, the vacancy rate has risen, and the imbalance between supply and demand is obvious. Faced with the problem of "buy or wait", many people fall into hesitation.
However, the latest news shows that the country will take stricter measures next year, and the real estate market may usher in two major changes. How will these changes affect the direction of the property market?
The source of this article is from the official media, and the specific link is repeated at the end of the article, but in order to improve the readability of the article, the details may be polished, please read it sensibly for reference only
Real estate control will be more nuanced
In recent years, the mainland real estate market has faced many challenges. On the one hand, housing prices in some cities are too high, and residents are under great pressure to buy houses. On the other hand, some third- and fourth-tier cities have a backlog of real estate inventory, and developers' capital chains are tight.
In the face of this complex situation, precise regulation and control policies are particularly important. Just as doctors prescribe different prescriptions according to the specific conditions of different patients, the government also needs to formulate corresponding regulatory measures according to the actual situation of the real estate market in various places.
For example, in first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities, it is necessary to continue to strictly restrict purchases and loans to curb speculation and speculation. In some third- and fourth-tier cities, restrictions need to be moderately eased to stimulate reasonable housing demand.
In fact, the real estate market situation in different cities on the mainland does vary greatly. Taking 2023 as an example, housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai will remain high, while housing prices in many third- and fourth-tier cities will fall to varying degrees.
This differentiation is precisely the reason for the need for precise regulation. In terms of specific policies, the flexible diversification of real estate credit policies is an important direction. For first-time home buyers, especially young people, more preferential policies can be considered.
For example, some cities have begun to implement measures such as "lower interest rates on first home loans" and "lower down payment ratios" to reduce the burden on buyers who just need to buy a home. Nanjing has launched a policy of "the minimum down payment ratio of the first home loan is 20%", which is welcomed by many young people.
At the same time, for multiple property owners, stricter restrictions need to be implemented. For example, increase the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for second and third homes, or directly restrict the purchase of third and more homes.
The purpose of this is to curb speculative property purchases and guide the flow of funds to the real economy. Big data analysis is undoubtedly an important tool for formulating precise regulatory policies.
By collecting and analyzing multi-dimensional information such as real estate transaction data, population flow data, and employment data, government departments can more accurately grasp market trends and make more scientific decisions.
For example, some cities have established real estate market monitoring platforms to monitor housing price changes, transaction volume and other indicators in real time to provide a basis for policy formulation. In addition, regulatory policies also need to be dynamically adjusted.
In addition, in recent years, the imbalance in the housing supply structure of the mainland has become increasingly prominent, and it needs to be further optimized and adjusted. This problem is mainly reflected in two aspects.
The supply of residential housing will be more diversified
In the field of commercial housing, many cities, especially the third and fourth-tier cities, have experienced oversupply.
According to statistics, by the end of 2023, the area of commercial housing for sale in the country will reach 480 million square meters. This huge inventory not only occupies a large amount of land and financial resources, but also puts huge financial pressure on developers.
In stark contrast, the supply of affordable housing has fallen far short of demand. In first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, there are often years of queuing to apply for public rental housing.
Taking Beijing as an example, by the end of 2023, there are more than 200,000 families on the waiting list for public rental housing in the city, and only about 30,000 can be resettled each year, and the contradiction between supply and demand is very prominent.
Optimizing the structure of housing supply has become a top priority. This is not only related to meeting the housing needs of different groups, but also related to the healthy development of the real estate market and the harmony and stability of society.
A more balanced and diversified housing supply structure can better meet the housing needs of residents at different income levels and life stages, thereby promoting social equity and sustainable economic development.
Looking forward to the future, the trend of optimizing the housing supply structure is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
First of all, many cities have introduced relevant policies to vigorously develop affordable housing such as public rental housing and low-rent housing. For example, Shenzhen proposes to add 500,000 units of affordable housing and talent housing by 2025, including no less than 200,000 units of public rental housing.
At the same time, market-oriented rental housing such as long-term rental apartments is also developing rapidly, providing more choices for young people. Second, revitalizing and utilizing the stock of housing will become an important means. Some cities are beginning to explore the transformation of idle commercial buildings into rental housing, or the renovation and upgrading of old residential areas.
For example, the "Action Plan for the Construction of Rental Housing" launched by Shanghai includes the use of existing land and idle buildings to rebuild rental housing. Third, the development of new housing models such as co-ownership housing is also the direction of future development.
Co-ownership housing is jointly held by the government and buyers, and buyers only need to pay part of the house payment to move in at "half price", which not only lowers the threshold for buying a house, but also effectively curbs speculation. Beijing, Shanghai and other cities have been actively promoting and achieving good results.
However, there are still many challenges in optimizing the structure of housing supply. The first is the limitation of land resources, especially in first-tier cities, where land for building affordable housing is very scarce.
Secondly, financial pressure is also a major problem. The construction of affordable housing requires a large amount of capital investment, and local government finances are often stretched.
Taking a second-tier city as an example, the city plans to invest 5 billion yuan in the construction of affordable housing in 2023, but the actual funds in place are only 3 billion yuan, and the funding gap is obvious.
In addition, how to ensure the fair distribution of affordable housing and prevent "insurance fraud" and other issues also need to be solved. In recent years, many cities have exposed problems such as black-box operation and preferential treatment of relatives and friends in the allocation of affordable housing, which has seriously affected the credibility of the policy.
In the face of many challenges in optimizing the structure of housing supply, the direction of future efforts should be multi-pronged and comprehensively promoted.
Future Directions
First of all, the land transfer plan can be adjusted to clearly stipulate the proportion of affordable housing in the newly transferred residential land. Shenzhen has set an example for other cities by requiring affordable housing to account for no less than 60% of the new residential land transferred.
Second, innovate financing models to attract more social capital to participate in the construction of affordable housing. We can explore financial instruments such as REITs to revitalize existing assets and provide a sustainable and stable source of funds for the construction of affordable housing.
Beijing has successfully issued the first affordable rental housing REITs, raising nearly 2 billion yuan, injecting new vitality into the construction of affordable housing. In addition, we should strengthen the construction of informatization and realize the transparent management of the whole process of application, allocation and use of affordable housing.
With the help of big data, blockchain and other technologies, a unified national affordable housing information management platform can be established to achieve cross-regional and cross-departmental information sharing and real-time supervision. Shanghai has launched a "one-network service" affordable housing application system, which has greatly improved work efficiency and fairness.
In addition, more enterprises are encouraged to participate in the long-term rental apartment market to improve the quality and service level of rental housing. Policies such as tax incentives and financial support can be used to attract high-quality enterprises to enter the leasing market.
For example, Hangzhou's "New Rental Housing Deal" has provided a number of support measures for long-term rental apartment operators, effectively activating the local rental market.
epilogue
The house is not only a place to shelter from the wind and rain, but also carries people's yearning and expectation for a better life. It is a haven for families, the starting point for careers, and the epitome of urban development. Therefore, the housing issue has always been a major issue related to people's livelihood.
Precise regulation policies and optimized supply structure are essential to build a healthy and stable real estate market. Through city-specific regulatory measures, we can effectively curb speculation and guide the market to return to residential attributes.
Optimizing the supply structure can better meet the housing needs of different groups and promote social equity. Looking ahead, we expect to see a more balanced and diversified real estate market.
Commercial housing, affordable housing, rental housing and other forms coexist to meet the needs of residents of different income levels and different life stages. We also look forward to seeing more innovative housing models emerge to provide people with more choices.
It is believed that with the joint efforts of the government, enterprises and all sectors of society, the beautiful vision of "living in a home" will eventually be realized. Everyone will be able to find their own home, and cities will become more livable and vibrant. Let's look forward to such a hopeful future together!
Resources:
Xinhuanet: What are the highlights of the new round of real estate policy combination? Expert analysis
Lizhi.com News: Falling or Picking Up? What are the new developments in China's real estate entering 2024?