The Philippines has made frequent provocations, China's patience has run out, the Shandong ship has appeared in the western part of Luzon, the US phone call has reached Beijing, and Marcos has sued for peace with China, can China agree?
The Philippines' continued provocative actions on islands and reefs in the South China Sea have annoyed China, and the patience of diplomatic, military, and law enforcement agencies with the Philippines is running out. First, China's state-run People's Daily published an article saying that the Philippines bears unshirkable responsibility for the tension in the South China Sea and advised the Philippines to stop any provocative moves to prevent the situation from escalating. Second, on June 17, the Chinese Coast Guard stepped up its countermeasures, "towing" and boarding the Philippine ship, and seized eight rifles, injuring seven Philippine people. Third, at the military level, a number of PLA's 055 destroyers and other major warships appeared in the South China Sea to hold high-frequency and targeted military training, and 071 and other amphibious landing ships were deployed at Xianbin Reef to respond to the escalation of the situation at any time. On this basis, the Shandong aircraft carrier formation recently appeared more than 200 kilometers west of Luzon Island, accompanied by 052D missile destroyers, 054A missile frigates, and integrated supply ships, which made the United States and the Philippines nervous.
After the Shandong's appearance, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell called Beijing to express grave concern about China's actions at Second Thomas Shoal, saying that the U.S. has an "unwavering defense commitment" to the Philippines and demanding that China resolve the dispute peacefully in accordance with "international law." At the same time, within 24 hours, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan sent a telegram to the Philippines, again mentioning the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty", emphasizing that any "armed attack" on the Philippine armed forces and coast guard in the South China Sea would trigger the treaty. On the one hand, it is feared that China will lose its "entry point" for returning to the Asia-Pacific region by having a showdown in the South China Sea, and will lose its "credibility" among ASEAN countries and "cede Southeast Asia to China," so as to deter China from acting rashly. Corresponding to Campbell's call, the US military launched the "Rim of the Pacific" military exercise on June 27, and took a 40,000-ton quasi-aircraft carrier as the target of the exercise.
On the other hand, the US side fears that the Philippines will "admit intimidation" or compromise on the South China Sea issue, and instigate the Marcos administration to continue to stir up the situation in the South China Sea and add obstacles to China, and the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" is the "backing" of the Philippines. At a time when Philippine personnel were disarmed and injured by the Chinese coast guard at Ren'ai Jiao, the United States turned a blind eye to the Philippines' request for help and did not send a single soldier. The Marcos administration has realized that the dispute between China and the Philippines has to be properly handled when the Shandong aircraft carrier battle group is left in the South China Sea, and if the Philippine side does not handle it well, it will usher in unbearable consequences.
After the Philippine side declared that the Ren'ai Jiao conflict was an "accident", Philippine Foreign Minister Manaro recently publicly stated that the Philippine side hopes to convene a meeting of the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea issue between China and the Philippines in early July to discuss the recent dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. It is not difficult to see that the Philippines is finally willing to follow China's suggestion, return to the negotiating table, and resolve maritime disputes through negotiation and dialogue.
Far from deterring the PLA, the US joint military exercises in the South China Sea and the Asia-Pacific region have provoked greater moves from China. The Shandong's departure to sea is enough to show that military strength is the basis for safeguarding national sovereignty and interests, and that the United States and the Philippines can only speak in a way that they can understand.