The liquor sector has adjusted again, and it is also in the context of today's rebound across the board, weakening against the market, and the CSI Liquor Index is currently down nearly 1%.
Friends who have been paying attention to Xiaocai for a long time can see that Xiaocai has been reminding everyone to pay attention to the risks of the liquor sector in the past year, even if Kweichow Moutai has recently released three major moves, the price and stock price of Kweichow Moutai have rebounded to a certain extent, but at the current point in time, Xiaocai still needs to remind investors who want to get on the liquor sector 4 points.
First of all, the attitude of northbound funds is crucial. Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao and other liquor leading stocks are all heavy stocks of northbound funds, and most of the recent northbound funds are in the outflow of most trading days, yesterday's northbound capital outflow of 10.958 billion yuan, in this context, the liquor sector is still difficult to strengthen in the short term.
Secondly, the internal differentiation of the liquor industry is obvious. The three big moves released by Kweichow Moutai are indeed effective in the short term, but it can occupy a place in the market by virtue of its strong brand premium ability and profitability. However, for liquor brands below the third and fourth lines, they lack similar advantages and need to invest a lot of marketing expenses to maintain market share. This divergence may lead to limited growth in the liquor sector as a whole.
In addition, changes in the consumption habits of young people. With the improvement of health awareness and the change of consumption concepts, young people are more and more inclined to choose fruit wine, beer or other beverages. This change in consumption trends has put some pressure on the growth of the future performance of the liquor sector.
Finally, the recovery of the liquor industry is closely related to the recovery of the consumer market.
Therefore, Xiaocai believes that although Moutai's three major measures have brought a short-term rebound to the liquor sector, and the current valuation of the liquor sector is also at a low level, the outflow of northbound funds, the differentiation within the industry and the changes in the consumption habits of young people have brought uncertainty to the future development of the liquor sector.