According to CCTV news, due to the crushing defeat of the French ruling Ba'ath Party in the previous European Parliament elections, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly on June 9 and the holding of a new National Assembly election. The first round of voting for the election officially kicked off on June 30 local time, followed by the second round of voting on July 7.
On June 30, local time, the first round of voting in the French National Assembly election began. Photo according to Visual China
Agence France-Presse described the parliamentary elections as likely to change the trajectory of France and see Marine Le Pen's far-right party come to power for the first time in history.
This is the first time since World War II that France has predicted that a far-right party may win a snap election, which has aroused widespread concern in Europe and even the United States. If a far-right party gains control of the French parliament and then appoints a prime minister, it will not only change the political map of France, but also accelerate the spread of far-right forces across Europe, leading to rifts within the Western coalition.
Far-right parties lead in support:
Le Pen says "will win an absolute majority"
The 28-year-old party leader may become the next French prime minister
The first round of voting in the early elections will be held on the 30th from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. (8 p.m. in large cities) in the 577 constituencies of mainland France and overseas territories, corresponding to the 577 seats in the National Assembly.
The election adopts a two-round voting system, in which the candidates receive more than half of the votes in the first round of voting, they are directly elected; If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, the candidate who receives the support of not less than 12.5% of the registered voters in the constituency will enter the second round of voting on the 7th of the following month. The candidate with the highest number of votes is elected for a five-year term.
Most polls suggest that the National Alliance is expected to win the most seats in the National Assembly, although it is unclear whether the party will be able to secure an absolute majority. According to the "final poll" of the French Public Opinion Institute (IFOP) on the 28th, the support rate of the National Alliance, which has a far-right leaning, is stable at 36.5%, ranking first; The Left Alliance "New Popular Front" is in second place with 29%; French President Emmanuel Macron's coalition of centrists such as the ruling Ba'ath Party "together" ranked third with 20.5%.
"The National Alliance could occupy as many as 295 seats." Marine Le Pen said in an interview with the media a few days ago that "we will win the absolute majority" and predicted that Bardeira would become prime minister. Bardeira, 28, is the party's current chairman and a protégé of Le Pen, with no governing experience.
Marine Le Pen and her protégé Bardeira
If the National Alliance actually holds a majority (winning an absolute majority) of seats, then Macron will have to relinquish all executive powers, including the power to appoint the prime minister. Even if it does not have a majority, if the National Alliance becomes the largest party, it can hold parliamentary power through alliances with right-wing forces such as the Republican Party. In any case, Bardeira is the one most likely to appear in the position of the next prime minister.
According to the report, if Bardeira becomes prime minister, it will be "the first time since World War II that the French government has fallen into the hands of nationalist far-right forces" (with far-right forces in the government), which will also give birth to France's "fourth co-governing government".
France had three post-World War II periods of "co-governance", in which the president and prime minister came from opposing political camps, but no co-governance government in the past "had such a very different worldview" as the "President Macron-Prime Minister Bardeira" combination.
Macron's political gamble or failure:
The rise of the far-right could lead to a rift in the European and American alliances
Especially on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
In the results of the European Parliament elections on June 9, the National Alliance won with 31.5% of the vote, and in order to prevent the spread of far-right forces, Macron "launched a political gamble" and called early parliamentary elections.
Macron had privately informed US President Joe Biden in advance. At first, Biden's inner circle was only shocked that he wanted to hold a "rematch with a higher stake", but with the National League maintaining its "first approval rating", Washington began to accept the fact that Macron was heading for defeat.
Former U.S. officials and other observers say the impact of the election could be significant, though not necessarily immediate; In particular, President Macron's "political gamble" could ultimately weaken the European Union and, in the long run, could lead to a rift in the otherwise united front between the United States and its Western allies, especially over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
French President Emmanuel Macron
"Macron's 'cohabitation' with the opposition prime minister will lead to political chaos in Europe, both in terms of military and economic assistance to Ukraine and in the hard line against Russia." Rattke, who is now the director of the Institute of Virtue, noted.
Charles Kupchan, a former official of the US National Security Council, also said: "The weakness of the French government could mean that the core of the EU will be mired in some kind of political paralysis." This is not good news when the United States needs a strong and purposeful partner across the Atlantic. ”
Once, Macron challenged France's two traditional major political parties as a centrist and won the presidential election, shaking the French political scene. "Today, his political energy seems to be exhausted," said Peter Love, a European analyst at the Hudson Institute, "and his movement has always been very personal and has revolved around the person of Macron, which raises questions about whether there is a future for the Baath Party after him." ”
But for now, the White House is "comforting itself" because there are still three years to go before the next presidential election in France. "It's just a parliamentary election," said a Biden administration official, "and if it's a presidential election, people are going to be more nervous." ”
Red Star News reporter Deng Shuyi Comprehensive CCTV News (main station reporter Ma Jinjin) and so on
Editor: He Xianxian, Editor-in-charge: Deng Minguang
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