India is experiencing unprecedented heat hell, with temperatures approaching 50 degrees in many parts of the north, not to mention that people can't stand it, and even mosquitoes have disappeared. This piece of the map of India is hot and black.
The heat hell, but the problem is not people's livelihood, the most serious problem is industry. Just kidding, how many years has the high temperature in April and May in India, it has been like this for thousands of years, and the lack of electricity has been more than 70 years since the founding of the country, and it has not been solved, so it is not a big problem.
The problem now is that because India has made a little bit of success in industrialization in recent years, there are more and more factories that eat electricity, and then there is a lack of electricity, which is not only a matter of heat death, but also foreign capital will definitely jump to the feet.
It's not easy to be reasonable with India's power sector. First of all, India's topography, geography and climate conditions determine that India can't escape the scorching heat in April and May every year, when the temperature is high and the power generation is unstable, the demand for electricity will increase greatly, an increase of 10% or 20%, because the need for electricity to maintain the environment for people to work.
The same is true for water shortages, where water is cooled when electricity is not available, and the demand for water is also greatly increased. In short, under the squeeze of the two compartments, the overall shortage of electricity and the seasonal shortage of electricity are becoming more and more serious.
High temperature but lack of electricity, which will affect the work efficiency of the machine, affect the work efficiency of people, shutdown is inevitable, one or two months in a year The factory can not work normally, and the output and profits will definitely decline. In 2022, environmental groups reported that the loss of productivity caused by extreme heat may have cost India 5.4% of its GDP. India's manufacturing PMI also fell in May this year, and the specific data will be seen after a while.
The loss of productivity is a thing, and those who suffer in India inevitably complain: every day they say that they want to be a world power and be on an equal footing with the P5, but in turn they have a small power supply full of loopholes, which is simply too unusual. There are also many people here who eat melons and sigh, saying that it is no wonder that there is no strong country in the tropics.
So, can India's electricity problem be solved? Hey, that's the thing about Modi. Let's just say that the objective difficulty of this matter is really difficult. Generating more electricity, it should not be a big problem for India, whether it is natural conditions or technical production, India's photovoltaic power generation is considered powerful as a whole, and it is still coal power if it is not good. However, electricity is not only about generating electricity, but also about transporting electricity to where it is needed, and it is also necessary to consider the cost of power generation loss control.
To put it bluntly, this is a matter of a game of chess and rapid coordinated development in the whole country, but in this part of India, the political environment is extremely complex, the interests of various localities and groups are intertwined, and there are contradictions and fights between states in India, and the government army will only send people to watch it, as long as it does not make a big fuss.
This is simply unimaginable to us, what kind of game of chess, there is no such thing.
India's power companies have little incentive to increase power generation because the investment is too large and it is easy to lose money. India's electricity theft situation is particularly serious, electricians take money to help people pull wires on power lines to steal electricity is also a big business for them, and India also has a famous documentary about private electricity theft.
The difficulty of this kind of thing is that the mass base is too large, and they still have votes, if you dare to risk the world's condemnation, then don't think about electing for any position, under this kind of election system, is there anything worse than not being elected? It doesn't exist anymore.
Modi wants to solve the problems that India has not solved for decades, and I can only say that it is very, very difficult.
If the lack of electricity will affect industrial production and only affect the upper limit of development, I think the more serious problem is that the impact of water and electricity shortage on agriculture will become more and more serious with global warming and climate extremes.
Agriculture in India is also quite magical. As a country with a population of the same level as China, India's grain production is half of China's, but India is the world's major grain exporter, while China is the largest grain importer, and it still worries about food problems every day. Eh, is it because Indians have a special constitution and can work without eating? Of course not. Hunger in India is a serious problem.
According to the 2022 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), India ranked 107th out of 121 countries in the world, with a score of 29.1.
Over the past decade or so, India's rankings have been jumping between 90 and 110 repeatedly. Indians are very unhappy, and the way to be unhappy is to accuse the ranking agency of malicious statistics, and then break the defense and scold.
Objectively speaking, India's farming environment is excellent, and although the yield is less than that of China, if it is evenly distributed to everyone, it will definitely be enough to eat, so why would it be hungry?
The answer is that food is not for the poor, it is for foreign exchange. That's right, as the mother of democracy and the next China touted by the West for decades, India has been in a trade deficit for 75 years and 73 years!
In other words, it has never earned a penny abroad from trade, and the deficit is now growing. Grain is one of the few commodities in India that can make money and narrow the deficit, and most of the grain is simply the property of the landlord.
Drought and increased power shortages will affect industry and, of course, food production. In recent years, the climate has been extreme, agricultural planting has suffered heavy losses, and the cost of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers has also risen, which has further squeezed already very small profits.
High temperatures also increase transportation losses and transportation costs. Food spoils in large quantities due to poor infrastructure, and up to 15% of fruits and vegetables are wasted. In the 2020-2021 fiscal year, India lost $18.4 billion worth of food, about one-fifth of which came from spoiled fruit.
Although the Indian government has already announced restrictions on grain exports and demanded that food prices be maintained, food inflation is still inevitable.
This is a matter related to people's livelihood and social stability, and it requires the Indian government to step up its deployment and take a long-term view. Huh? Deployment, long-term, doesn't this poke at the blind spot of the Indian government's ability again! The difficulty is very big.
The task is arduous, so let's wish Modi a happy re-election.