Text: Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun
From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2,754.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and the growth rate slowed down from the previous month. Core conclusionsIn the first five months of 2024, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased year-on-year. From the perspective of revenue, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and the growth rate accelerated compared with January to April. In terms of volume and price, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value from January to May 2024 was 6.2%; In terms of price index, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of PPI was -2.4%. On the cost side, the total operating costs of industrial enterprises above designated size were 45.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. In the first five months of 2024, the gross profit margin of operating income was 14.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from January to April, and the profit margin of operating income was 5.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous four months. From the perspective of industry categories, the cumulative growth rate of total profits of manufacturing and electrical and water enterprises in the first five months has declined, and the decline in total profits of mining enterprises has narrowed. From January to May 2024, the total profit of the mining industry was 502.45 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 16.2%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from January to April 2024, and the total profit of the manufacturing industry was 1,928.57 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and the growth rate slowed down from the previous four months. The total profit of the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry was 323.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points over the previous four months. In the manufacturing industry, the resource goods manufacturing industry dragged down the cumulative profit growth rate, and the consumer goods manufacturing industry and the equipment manufacturing industry narrowed the pull of the total profit. From January to May 2024, the growth rate of profits dragged down by 1.7 percentage points in the manufacturing industry, which was 2.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. From January to May, the equipment manufacturing industry drove the total profit up by 3.6 percentage points, which was smaller than the 4.7 percentage points from January to April. The consumer goods manufacturing industry pulled 2.2 percentage points on the total profit in the first five months, 0.4 percentage points narrower than the previous four months. Overall, the pull and drag of the manufacturing industry on total profits have shrunk compared with the previous four months. In May 2024, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 57.5%, a slight increase from the previous value. Among the three major categories, the asset-liability ratio of the manufacturing industry was 57% in May, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from April, the asset-liability ratio of the mining industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 56.8% from 56.9% in April, and the asset-liability ratio of electric and water enterprises remained unchanged at 60%. In terms of ownership, the asset-liability ratio of all enterprises increased, with joint-stock enterprises increasing the most, from 58.3% in April to 58.5%. The asset-liability ratio of enterprises under other ownership systems increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Risk warning: First, geopolitical risks exceed expectations; Second, the macro economy is less than expected; Third, there are large fluctuations in overseas markets. Report text 1 Profits of industrial enterprises grew steadily From January to May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2,754.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and the growth rate slowed down from the previous month. In the first five months of 2024, industrial companies saw year-over-year revenue growth. According to the dismantling of the income statement, the year-on-year change in the total profit of industrial enterprises is approximately the sum of the change in operating income and the change in profit margin. From the perspective of revenue, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and the growth rate accelerated from January to April. In terms of volume and price, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value from January to May 2024 was 6.2%; In terms of price index, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of PPI was -2.4%. On the cost side, the total operating costs of industrial enterprises above designated size were 45.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. In the first five months of 2024, the gross profit margin of operating income was 14.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from January to April; Operating income margin was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous four months.
2 Marginal improvement in the profitability of the resource manufacturing industryFrom the perspective of industry categories, the cumulative growth rate of the total profits of manufacturing and electrical and water enterprises in the first five months has declined, and the decline in the total profits of mining enterprises has narrowed. From January to May 2024, the total profit of the mining industry was 502.45 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 16.2%, and the decline rate was 2.4 percentage points narrower than that from January to April 2024; The total profit of the manufacturing industry was 1,928.57 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down from the previous four months; The total profit of the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry was 323.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the previous four months.
From the perspective of the pull of the cumulative growth rate of total profits, the pull of manufacturing and electricity and water on the cumulative growth rate of total profits has decreased, and the drag of the mining industry on total profits has decreased. Among the three major categories, the cumulative growth rate of total profits dragged down by the mining industry fell by 3.6 percentage points, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the first four months of 2024, and continued to show a recovery trend. In the first five months of 2024, the manufacturing sector pulled 4.3 percentage points of cumulative growth in total profits, down 1 percentage point from the previous value. From January to May 2024, the total profits of electric and water enterprises decreased significantly, but the overall growth rate still increased by 2.8 percentage points, which was 0.7 percentage points lower than that from January to April.
In the manufacturing industry, the resource goods manufacturing industry dragged down the cumulative profit growth rate, and the consumer goods manufacturing industry and the equipment manufacturing industry narrowed the pull of the total profit. From January to May 2024, the resource goods manufacturing industry in the manufacturing industry dragged down the profit growth rate by 1.7 percentage points, which was better than the decline of 2.2 percentage points in the previous month. From January to May, the equipment manufacturing industry drove the total profit up by 3.6 percentage points, which was smaller than the 4.7 percentage points from January to April. The consumer goods manufacturing sector contributed 2.2 percentage points to total profits in the first five months, 0.4 percentage points narrower than the previous four months. Overall, the pull and drag of the manufacturing sector on total profits has narrowed compared with the previous four months. From the perspective of manufacturing profit structure, in the first five months of 2024, the proportion of total profits in the equipment manufacturing industry continued to increase, from 46.7% in the first four months to 48%. The share of profits in the resource manufacturing sector bottomed out to 18.9% from 17.8% in the first four months. Note: According to the definition of the National Bureau of Statistics, the equipment manufacturing industry includes: metal products industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, special equipment manufacturing industry, automobile manufacturing industry, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, instrument manufacturing industry, a total of 8 major industries; The consumer goods manufacturing industry includes: agricultural and sideline food, food, wine and beverages and refined tea, tobacco, textile, textile and garment, leather, fur, feather and its products and footwear industry, furniture, paper and paper products, printing and recording media reproduction industry, cultural, educational, art, sports and recreational goods manufacturing, medicine, and chemical fibers. In addition, we classify six major industries: petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products, rubber and plastics, non-metallic minerals, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, as resource goods manufacturing industry.
From the perspective of subdivided industries, the equipment manufacturing industry is still an important engine for driving the profits of industrial enterprises. From January to May 2024, among the equipment manufacturing industry, the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry had the most obvious pull on the total profit, with the total profit increasing by 56.8% year-on-year, driving the total profit up by 2.6 percentage points. The profit of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 17.9% year-on-year, driving the total profit to increase by 1.2 percentage points. In the resource products manufacturing industry, the profit of the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to May increased by 80.6% year-on-year, driving the total profit up by 1.8 percentage points. In terms of consumer goods manufacturing, the profit of the chemical fiber manufacturing industry from January to May increased by 169.3% year-on-year, driving the total profit up by 0.2 percentage points. Among the electric and water enterprises, the profits of the electricity and heat production and supply industries increased by 35% year-on-year, driving the total profits up by 2.6 percentage points.
3 Corporate asset-liability ratio rises slightly In May 2024, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 57.5%, a slight increase from the previous value. Among the three major categories, the asset-liability ratio of the manufacturing industry was 57% in May, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from April, the asset-liability ratio of the mining industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 56.8% from 56.9% in April, and the asset-liability ratio of electric and water enterprises remained unchanged at 60%. In terms of ownership, the asset-liability ratio of all enterprises increased, with joint-stock enterprises increasing the most, from 58.3% in April to 58.5%. The asset-liability ratio of enterprises under other ownership systems increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
4 Risk warning: First, geopolitical risks exceed expectations; Second, the macro economy is less than expected; Third, there are large fluctuations in overseas markets.
This article is from the report "Comments on Profit Data of Industrial Enterprises: Marginal Improvement in Resource Manufacturing" released by Huafu Securities Research Institute on June 28, 2024.
Analyst:
燕翔， S0210523050003
许茹纯， S0210523060005
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