The United States suppresses China's electric vehicles, why doesn't Japan follow this time?

Correct Answer Station

2024-06-24 13:13Posted in Anhui Finance and Economics Creator

In the past two years, China's new energy vehicles have been very competitive, with 1.203 million units exported in 2023, setting a historical record.

In the first five months of this year, another 519,000 units were exported, reflecting a 13.7% y/y increase.

China's new energy vehicles have swept the world, and many countries are red-eyed.

The United States takes the lead.

Last month, the United States announced that it would increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles from 25% to 100%!

Even, a U.S. congressman said, "Tariffs are not enough, we need to ban Chinese electric vehicles from entering the United States." ”

Then, the European Union also announced that it would impose tariffs of 17.4%, 20% and 38.1% on BYD, Geely Automobile and SAIC Motor respectively; Other Chinese automakers imposed tariffs of 21 percent.

Currently, the EU's tariff is 10%.

The EU is completely following the example of the United States.

Why?

Because, in October last year, the European Union launched the so-called "anti-subsidy investigation" of China's electric vehicle exports to Europe.

When the results of the investigation were announced at this time, it was obvious that the United States was already in the front and was following the example.

In the latest news, it is said that the Canadian government is preparing to impose new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, "in line with the policies of the United States and the European Union." ”

Media coverage

However, I don't know if you have thought about an interesting question:

Will Japan follow the example of Europe and the United States and also impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles?

You must know that in addition to China, the global automobile manufacturing is the United States, Europe, and Japan (of course, South Korea may also be counted as one).

Moreover, the automobile industry is a well-deserved "pillar industry" in Japan, accounting for about 10% of the country's GDP and 40% of the manufacturing industry.

And last year, China's car exports surpassed Japan's for the first time, knocking Japan off the throne of the world's largest car exporter.

However, this time, a senior official of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that "it is not yet enough to sue the domestic industry for losses."

In other words, even if the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are imposed, there are examples from the United States, the European Union, and Canada.

But now, Japan has chosen not to follow for the time being.

Japan's largest economic newspaper, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, also published an editorial, emphasizing that electric vehicles "need to be cautious in imposing tariffs on China".

In everyone's mind, Japan is like a little follower of the United States.

But why is Japan this attitude this time?

One of the most important reasons here is:

Electric vehicles are not yet popular in Japan, so Japan does not need to "boycott" Chinese electric vehicles.

In terms of cultural customs, Japanese society as a whole is conservative, and this "conservative" is not a derogatory term, but refers to the fact that Japan is accustomed to traditional and existing things from top to bottom, and is relatively slow to accept new things.

Many people may remember an example.

During the epidemic, the Japanese disease control department compiled cases by fax, instead of our usual information system or form.

When it comes to buying cars, the same is true for the Japanese people, who are still accustomed to fuel vehicles, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles is not high.

Percentage and forecast of electric vehicle sales

In 2023, for example, less than 89,000 electric vehicles will be sold in Japan, which is already a record high, but it will only account for 2.2% of new passenger car sales.

Moreover, Japanese people are known for their love of buying domestic products, and the same is true for electric cars.

The top three best-selling electric car brands in Japan are all owned by Japan: Nissan, Mitsubishi, and Toyota.

The best-selling model was the Nissan Sakura, which sold nearly 38,000 units last year.

Japan's electric vehicle market is extremely difficult to open, and only 22,000 imported electric vehicles were sold last year.

Even Musk admits that "Tesla's market size in Japan is not large." ”

According to some data, there are only five or six thousand, no wonder Musk is reluctant to even mention the number.

In comparison, China's BYD sold a total of 1,446 units in Japan in 2023.

Even since the beginning of this year, BYD's sales in the Japanese market have been expanding, but it is only a small triple-digit month.

Therefore, even if Japan wants to learn from the United States and boycott China's electric vehicles, it will not have any substantial benefits for itself, and it will not be lethal to China at all.

The same is true of the United States.

In 2023, China will export only 13,000 electric vehicles to the United States, which is a little more than 1% of China's total electric vehicle exports, and only 0.08% of U.S. car sales (about 15.5 million units).

But why is the U.S. taking the lead in imposing tariffs?

The United States wants to disgust China.

The general election is just around the corner, and American politicians are scrambling to show voters a tough stance on China.

But Japan is different.

As mentioned earlier, if Japan boycotts Chinese electric vehicles, it will not be beneficial to itself, and more importantly:

Japan and China are more economically dependent.

Whether it is small, medium, or small enterprises, or agriculture, industry, and services, the trade ties between China and Japan are much stronger than those of other Western countries.

For example, in the first three months of this year, half of Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment exports went to China.

According to Nikkei statistics, Japan and China have the highest share of trade (both imports and exports) compared to other G7 countries.

Therefore, Japan does not want to provoke an incident and provoke China to turn its face.

To sum it simply, if the Japanese follow the example of the United States to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, it will not benefit Japan itself.

The Japanese can naturally settle this account.

Of course, this also gives us an inspiration.

At present, in the world of great controversy, the so-called West is not monolithic, and they also have their own calculations.

Therefore, we need to find the right time to differentiate, fight, and win the maximum space.

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