As an important link stuck between China and the United States, the Taiwan issue has always attracted much attention from the international community, and there is no doubt about China's determination to reunify, but the United States has made it clear that it wants to rely on Taiwan to contain China.
When Taiwan will be reunified is not only a matter of greatest concern to the people on both sides of the strait, but even some US experts have speculated a lot about it. Some speculate that China's reunification with Taiwan will not take more than 2027.
Some people also say that China actually has no intention of using force against Taiwan at all, because the longer the Taiwan issue drags on, the more beneficial it will be to the mainland.
How credible is this speculation?
Taiwan
Since Lai Qingde came to power, the "Taiwan independence" forces have become more and more rampant, and the mainland has adopted more and more restrictions on Taiwan, which has made many people believe in the "Davidson window."
The Davidson window was proposed by Davidson, a former U.S. Indo-Pacific commander, who, as a veteran, has a clear view of the Taiwan issue and has put forward his own views.
He said that China will definitely reunify Taiwan by 2027. The basis for the speculation is very simple: China has been steadily developing, whether politically, militarily or economically, China has grown into a well-deserved "world power".
On the other hand, the performance of the United States in recent years has shown one thing, that is, the United States is going downhill. Although militarily the United States has a century-old foundation, economically and politically, the decline of the United States is obvious.
In terms of the economy, the hegemony of the dollar is still there, but many countries have realized the crisis and have begun to "de-dollarize", and the domestic economic situation is not good, otherwise from 2022 to 2023, there will be no "interest rate hike" to stabilize the economy.
Politically, there are only two people who are rivals and competitive, the current US President Joe Biden and the former US President Donald Trump.
In folk parlance, the two of them are "half a catty". President Joe Biden's age is well known, and during his tenure, Biden's actions have left people in other countries speechless.
And although Trump is young, we have to combine his previous achievements to evaluate his strength. Not to mention that he has turned the world upside down in the world, and now Trump is mired in a lawsuit scandal, and the two of them have come and gone, so that the presidential election, which should have been decided in a few months, is now unclear.
If this trend continues, China's overtaking of the United States seems to be just around the corner. Davidson said that in 2050, China will replace the United States as the "world hegemon", and before that, the Taiwan issue will inevitably be resolved.
The recovery of Taiwan is China's last step, since the beginning of the last century, Taiwan has been a major problem for the mainland, as long as Taiwan is recovered, then China will be invincible, the territory is complete, and nothing can stop the pace of our development.
That's why Davidson thinks that China will first reunify and then take off. However, Li Anyou, a professor at Columbia University in the United States, has a similar but different view.
Economic Observer: During Lai Qingde's four-year term of office, will there be any major events on both sides of the strait?
Will dragging it solve the problem?
Li Anyou believes that the mainland has no intention of using force against Taiwan at all, and dragging it out is the best way to solve the problem. The basis for speculation is twofold.
First, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has given China a wake-up call. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has a different meaning for countries around the world. This is a confrontation between major powers, a confrontation between today's relatively advanced weapons, and a confrontation in the information age.
More importantly, we can see from Russia what will happen if a war breaks out on the continent.
Western countries have sanctioned Russia from all sides, and they have also provided help to Ukraine to consume Russia. Fortunately, Russia has a high degree of resource self-sufficiency, which makes the impact of sanctions less, but what if this object is replaced by China?
Although China is a major industrial manufacturing country, the mainland's energy reserves are relatively small, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached 70%. If Western countries deliberately blockade, then China will fall into an energy crisis, which will have a huge impact.
Therefore, if China wants to "reunify" Taiwan by force, it must think carefully. The second point of speculation is that China has grasped the moment and the situation.
Similar to Davidson's view, the United States is on its way to decline and China is on its way to strength. The decline of the United States means that their threat to China is getting smaller and smaller, and China only needs to "wait," and when the United States is unable to return to heaven and the "Taiwan independence" elements have nothing to rely on, Taiwan will naturally be taken into the bag.
Moreover, as far as China is concerned, "military reunification" is the next policy. Reunification by force will hurt the Taiwan compatriots first, and this is not a situation we want to see.
Second, if the mainland uses force, it will play into the hands of the United States, which has mentioned on more than one occasion that it will meddle in Taiwan's affairs, and the mainland's actions have given the United States a very good excuse; even if they are not as fast as the People's Liberation Army, they will openly announce the imposition of sanctions on the mainland in all aspects.
Although these sanctions may seem painless in a short period of time, they will certainly hinder the mainland's development in the long run.
Finally, the United States will also try its best to persuade other countries to become enemies of China, especially those that have territorial and interest disputes with China.
Although the Taiwan issue is a major means for the United States to contain China, China is a country with a 5,000-year-old civilization, and the mainland has all kinds of unexpected ways to win this game by taking history as a mirror.
China Review Network: Li Anyou: Beijing still wants to "surrender without a fight" against Taiwan
The layout of the continent
One step at a time, one son at a time, every step we take is steady and reasonable, and China has gradually grasped the initiative when it is unknown.
In the short period of more than 70 years of development, China's international influence is no longer inferior to that of any country. Military aspects aside, Brazil, the "backyard" of the United States, has reached close cooperation with China. Trade is settled in RMB, further enhancing the status of RMB in the international community.
In the Middle East, the United States provoked public anger in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but China once again won a full house with its great power demeanor. It turns out that oil and the US dollar are inextricably linked, and under the promotion of China, the way oil is settled has gradually changed.
CBN: The petrodollar foundation is "shaken"? For the first time, Iraq plans to allow settlements in yuan
In Europe, although it follows the pace of the United States, China's role in European countries cannot be ignored.
What is a layout is to invisibly let the other party into the trap step by step. At the same time as the layout, we also hold on to Taiwan and are ready to make the next move.
Lai Qingde's arrogance and arrogance were exchanged for the mainland's step-by-step progress. From the "Joint Sword 2014-A" actual military exercise around Taiwan to the further suspension of the policy of benefiting Taiwan, the control of politics, military and economy is in the hands of the mainland.
Under the all-round "trapped island," the deeds of the "Taiwan independence" elements will inevitably be reviled by others, and once the "Taiwan independence" elements provoke each other, the pace of the mainland's reunification will be one step forward, and no matter what form it takes, China will certainly be reunified, and Taiwan will certainly return!
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