The A-share banking sector rose strongly on Thursday, with the share prices of many major state-owned banks hitting record highs. At the same time, the recently active mystery funds continue to buy CSI 300 ETF, CSI 500 ETF and SSE 50 ETF funds, with a total turnover of more than 15 billion yuan.
The five major state-owned banks strive to hit a record high //
On June 27, the share prices of the five major state-owned banks hit or approached record highs. As of the close, ICBC rose sharply 1.24% to 5.70 yuan per share, a record high.
As of the close of trading on June 27, Bank of Communications rose sharply by 1.50% to 7.44 yuan per share, a record high.
In addition, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China are all located near record highs.
According to the CITIC Securities research report, since 2023, the absolute and relative returns of the banking sector have been significant, and the growth rate of bank earnings in the same period has been in a downward channel, reflecting the market style factors of the capital market that have a more drastic impact on valuation. Behind the change in style is the embodiment of the wave of allocation under the logic of product allocation, the decline of risk-free returns, the differentiation of risk-return curves, the unabated demand for financial product allocation, the improvement of dividend income asset returns, and the improvement of bank stock cost performance. Looking ahead, there seems to be a divergence between the logic of dividend assets and the logic of cyclical growth, but the underlying logic is highly unified, that is, the high certainty of dividend returns needs more fundamental support. The signal of the bottom of the fundamental driving factors of banks has begun to appear, and the policy direction of preventing debt risks will change the debt risk expectations of banks, and the valuation of bank stocks will be more fundamentally supported, while consolidating the certainty of bank dividend income.
Huafu Securities analysis said that since the beginning of this year, the market of the banking sector has been driven by three factors. The first is the diffusion of the dividend yield stock selection logic in the sector, and the high-dividend strategy has spread from state-owned banks to small and medium-sized banks. The second is the relaxation of real estate policies. Third, the market expects the downward slope of banks' net interest margins to slow down and the fundamentals are about to bottom out. Looking ahead, the banking sector will need to test more of the effect of the previous policy and the trend of future fundamentals.
Mystery funds continue to underpin ETF funds //
On June 27, the turnover of many CSI 300 ETFs, CSI 500 ETFs and SSE 50 ETFs increased significantly. Among them, the turnover of Huatai Pinebridge CSI 300 ETF was 4.995 billion yuan, the turnover of CSI 500 ETF was 3.221 billion yuan, the turnover of ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF was 2.264 billion yuan, the turnover of Harvest CSI 300 ETF was 1.777 billion yuan, the turnover of E Fund CSI 300 ETF was 1.714 billion yuan, and the turnover of ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF was 1.237 billion yuan.
From the perspective of transaction amount, the total turnover of many funds exceeded 15 billion yuan, and from the perspective of buying timing, it was mainly based on the bottom.
Taking Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF as an example, the trading volume of the day rebounded to 4.995 billion yuan again, which shows that near the current point, the mysterious funds are resolutely willing to support the bottom.
According to the research report of China Merchants Securities, the recent market shock adjustment and market turnover shrinkage, in this context, funds through ETFs to enter the market quickly, especially the CSI 300 ETF trading volume significantly expanded, significantly higher than the historical average, for the market to support the bottom. In addition, ETFs have continued to have net inflows this year, preferring "contrarian investment", and large-scale funds have flowed into the market rapidly through ETFs.
Northbound funds bucked the trend and increased their positions in Kweichow Moutai //
On June 27, northbound funds sold a net of 10.958 billion yuan, of which Wanhua Chemical, CATL, and North Huachuang were among the top net sellers, with net sales of 466 million yuan, 409 million yuan, and 254 million yuan respectively. In terms of net purchases, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, and Industrial Fortune Union ranked first in net purchases, with net purchases of 422 million yuan, 349 million yuan, and 307 million yuan respectively.
Haitong Securities said that for a long time, some investors in the market believe that A-share foreign capital prefers to consume blue chips, such as 18 years ago, northbound funds continued to flow into food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology and other consumer industries, even if the market is obviously under pressure, foreign capital still continues the net inflow trend. However, combined with the trend in recent years, since the end of 18 years, the top industries in the scale of net inflow of foreign capital in A-shares are power equipment, electronics, banks, etc., and the commonality of such industries lies in the existence of leading enterprises with prominent industry positions, long-term competitive advantages and relatively stable financial performance, that is, core assets with fundamental advantages.
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