China Youth Daily, China Youth Network Intern Reporter Wang Jingxuan Reporter Zhao Anqi
On 29 June, Osama Hamdan, a senior official of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), told the outside world that Hamas's recent negotiations with the Israeli side on a detaineee exchange and a ceasefire had not made progress. In his statement, he condemned the Israeli army's blockade of Gaza, called for more humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza, and reiterated Hamas's positive and open attitude towards any initiative aimed at achieving a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a complete Israeli withdrawal.
After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the dissolution of his wartime cabinet on June 17, the pace of Israeli fighting has not slowed down. On June 29, local time, Israeli air strikes on Lebanese Allah targets in southern Lebanon, and tensions between Lebanon and Israel have risen rapidly. Lebanese Allah says it is prepared for the worst-case scenario and will strike all of Israel.
Qin Tian, deputy director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with a reporter from China Youth Daily and China Youth Network that neither Hamas nor Israel explicitly "accepted" the ceasefire agreement, and the two sides are still playing games around some key provisions of the agreement. The Netanyahu government faces a more polarized political situation after the dissolution of the wartime cabinet, which also makes the outcome of the current ceasefire negotiations unpredictable.
Palestinians displaced by Israeli bombing walk through a street market in Khan Younis, Palestine's Gaza Strip, on June 29. Courtesy of Visual China
Ceasefire deal is difficult to resolve the 'impasse of confidence'
Britain's Reuters news agency reported that Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, said on June 29 that there was no progress in ceasefire talks in the Gaza Strip. On the same day, the leader of the Hamas Politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, spoke by telephone with Abbas Kamal, the head of Egypt's General Intelligence Service, to exchange views on the release of hostages and the ceasefire agreement.
The U.S. news website Axios reported on June 29 that a person familiar with the matter revealed that the U.S. recently proposed "new language" on parts of the release of detainees and the ceasefire agreement in an effort to bridge the differences between Israel and Hamas and reach an agreement.
On May 31, U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled an agreement aimed at achieving a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The agreement is planned to be implemented in three phases: the first phase is a six-week "comprehensive ceasefire", during which Israeli troops will withdraw from all population areas in the Gaza Strip and Hamas will release some of the Israeli women, elderly and wounded people held by Hamas; The second phase is the "full withdrawal" of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, in exchange for which Hamas needs to "release all remaining hostages, including male soldiers"; In the third phase, the "Gaza Reconstruction Plan" will begin, and the remains of the hostages will be returned to their families. On June 10, the draft agreement was voted on by the UN Security Council. The mediators are Qatar, Egypt and the United States. On June 23, Britain's Reuters news agency reported that Israel and Hamas, mediated by Qatar and Egypt, agreed in principle to a one-month ceasefire in exchange for detainees and Palestinian "prisoners", while providing more humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. However, the framework plan was shelved due to disagreements between the two sides on how to end the current conflict for good.
Hamas spokesman Jihad Taha told a Lebanese media outlet on June 12 that Hamas needed an agreement that would guarantee a permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops. According to an analysis by the Associated Press, Hamas fears that once all Israeli detainees are repatriated, Israel will resume the war immediately, or Israel will make additional demands that Hamas cannot accept during the negotiation stage, and then resume the war.
Regarding the ceasefire talks, Israel's permanent representative to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, said that Israel would demand the resignation of Hamas during the negotiations and that "we cannot agree that Hamas continues to be the ruler of Gaza". Some analysts believe that this Israeli proposal is aimed at weakening Hamas's control over the Gaza Strip and achieving its goal of continuing to hunt down Hamas leaders in other areas outside Gaza.
For the time being, both Israel and Hamas are caught in a dilemma in the ceasefire negotiations due to a lack of trust: they cannot completely abandon the negotiations, and their additional demands cannot be met. In Qin Tian's view, Hamas and Israel are still in the stage of repeated "bargaining", Hamas is worried that Israel will launch an offensive at any time after the release of the hostages, and Israel continues to insist on eliminating Hamas under the influence of domestic right-wing forces.
A woman holds a photo of Israeli detainees Nama Lemoth and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a protest rally in Caesarea, Israel, June 20. That night, thousands of protesters gathered outside Netanyahu's residence to demand a ceasefire agreement and general elections. Courtesy of Visual China
The dissolution of the wartime cabinet highlighted divisions within Israel
Ceasefire negotiations are still pending, but the political situation in Israel is constantly changing. On June 17, eight days after the resignation of opposition National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz, Netanyahu announced the dissolution of his wartime cabinet.
On October 11 last year, four days after the outbreak of the conflict in Gaza, Gantz from Israel's center-left camp, Netanyahu, the leader of the right-wing party, and Defense Minister Gallant jointly formed an emergency government to deal with wartime affairs. However, as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to escalate, the contradictions and differences in Israel's wartime cabinet are increasingly magnified.
What is "Real Victory?" In a televised speech on May 18, Gantz demanded that Netanyahu pass his six-point plan to end the war in Gaza by June 8 or lead the National Unity Party out of the emergency coalition government. Gantz's six-point plan includes eliminating Hamas, prioritizing the return of hostages, helping Israeli citizens displaced by the war to return to their homes, establishing a temporary civilian administration system in Gaza that is a joint U.S.-European-Arab-Palestinian system, and normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But this "ultimatum" was rejected by Netanyahu.
In this regard, Qin Tian analyzed that Gantz's resignation was due to his contradictions with Netanyahu on the long-term solution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and on the other hand, there were also considerations for the power struggle of the extreme right. With Gantz's withdrawal, Netanyahu and his cronies are the only ones left in the "nominally dead" wartime cabinet, and the dissolution is expected.
According to the Washington Post, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezarel Smotridge from far-right parties have repeatedly offered to join the wartime cabinet after Gantz's resignation, but Netanyahu has refused. In this regard, Qin Tian analyzed that another reason for Netanyahu to dissolve the wartime cabinet is that he does not want to be "coerced" by far-right forces, "He still wants to maintain a balance, rather than letting the far-right fill the vacant positions in the wartime cabinet." ”
"Although the wartime cabinet was dissolved, the wartime state continued." Qin Tian pointed out that the dissolution of the wartime cabinet, which has only an "empty shelf", will not have a substantial impact on Israel's internal politics and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and that Netanyahu's ruling coalition has not changed the majority of seats in the parliament, "but he still faces pressure from the far right." ”
"Polarization" within Israel has intensified
"The pursuit of Hamas will not stop." The New York Times, citing analysts, reported that Gantz's withdrawal has made the moderates in Netanyahu's government disappear, which will also reduce the chances of a deal between Palestine and Israel.
Netanyahu's far-right allies have made clear their opposition to the ceasefire agreement adopted by the UN Security Council and have threatened to withdraw from the ruling coalition and overthrow Netanyahu's government if the war "ends without destroying Hamas."
"In recent years, the contradictions between Israel's far-right and centrist forces have become more acute, and they have disagreed on many issues, leading to a tear in the overall political environment, which is an inevitable phenomenon in the era of political polarization in Israel." Qin Tian believes that the various disagreements between the people and political parties highlight the polarization trend of Israeli politics and put pressure on the Netanyahu government.
On the other hand, Israel continues to be condemned by the international community for causing the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. On 16 June, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it would impose a "tactical moratorium" on a road in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah in order to provide humanitarian assistance to Palestinians. Netanyahu made it clear that the plan was "unacceptable" upon learning of the news. Subsequently, the Israeli military clarified that the fighting in Rafah continued and was not suspended.
In this regard, Qin Tian told the reporter of China Youth Daily and China Youth Network that the impact of the so-called "tactical pause" is relatively limited, both in terms of scope and actual purpose. "Israel's overall strategy for Gaza has not changed, but more in response to international humanitarian pressure." Qin Tian believes that the Israeli military's implementation of a "tactical pause" is just a "gesture," but this alone has also been criticized and opposed by Israel's right-wing forces, which shows the seriousness of Israel's internal division.
The Palestinian health department in the Gaza Strip said in a statement on June 29 that a total of 28 people were killed and 66 injured in the military operations carried out by Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip in the past 24 hours. Since the outbreak of the new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7 last year, Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip have killed 37,626 Palestinians and injured 86,098. However, it remains unclear when progress will be made in the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas.
Source: China Youth Daily client