The United States, Japan and South Korea launched a new round of chip consultations, and the joint statement did not mention China, why are the Japanese media panicked? Worried that China's countermeasures will be too strong, what are Japan's weaknesses? The United States has launched an indiscriminate attack, and this time Japan's financial route will also be cut off.
The escalation of the Sino-US science and technology war, the United States, Japan and South Korea join forces to contain China?
As the competition between China and the United States enters a white-hot stage, the United States has further escalated its containment of China. In the past, the United States began to "fight alone" in the process of implementing a technological blockade against China, and it has begun to transform into an "iron wall" against China by uniting its allies to completely block the opportunity for China to build the entire semiconductor industry chain.
A typical example of this move is the U.S. government's pressure on the Dutch lithography machine company ASML, forcing it to sell low-end lithography machines to China, rather than the most cutting-edge products, to artificially slow down China's industrial upgrading and create a window of time for the revival of the U.S. manufacturing industry.
On the other hand, the semiconductor containment of the United States is not only limited to the industrial chain, but also reflected in the geography.
According to the website of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo met with South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry, Resources and Trade Ahn De-geun and Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Takeru Saito in Washington on June 26.
The exact content of the meeting is unknown, but the joint statement issued after the meeting highlighted the importance of the three parties in strengthening the supply chain of "key products", including chips, and expressed some concern about the "non-market measures" implemented by other countries. Although the statement did not directly mention further import and export restrictions, it was undoubtedly aimed at restructuring the semiconductor supply chain.
The joint statement of the three countries did not mention China at all, and Japan was shocked
It is worth noting that after analyzing the statement throughout, Nikkei Asia found that although the statement did not mention China at all, the "non-market measures" behind it were actually alluding to China.
What is embarrassing is that there are huge differences between Japan and the United States on their stance on China.
Although in November last year, under pressure from the United States, Japan and the Netherlands successively introduced regulations on chip manufacturing equipment, but this bill has little effect, and China's semiconductor technology is still in a stage of rapid development.
As a result, the United States has begun to consider further tightening its pockets, and relevant officials of the U.S. government have also visited Japan before to put pressure on the Japanese government to take further restrictive measures against China.
However, the Japanese side believes that the current control measures can prevent the cross-border transfer of technology, but it is difficult to restrict the maintenance activities of the chip equipment that the Chinese side has purchased. What's more, Chinese companies have already hoarded a large number of related parts, and it is really difficult to start with maintenance and other services.
At the same time, the Japanese government is also worried that if Japan responds to the call of the United States to expand chip restrictions on China, it will attract strong countermeasures from the Chinese side, causing China to cut off the supply chain of critical minerals, but Japan has no plan for this.
Therefore, the Japanese government's attitude towards further expansion of export restrictions is very negative, and even some opposition, and some officials directly emphasize that expanding export restrictions will hinder the development of Japan's semiconductor industry.
This concern is not unfounded, as China has previously controlled the export of two rare metals due to US chip sanctions, which once affected the production of the most sophisticated weapons and equipment of the US military, so that they have to "recycle scrap" for use. Compared with the United States, Japan's ability to resist risks will only be weaker, and the entire industry will suffer a comprehensive blow.
Japan needs China's huge market, but the United States wants to cut off its financial route
More importantly, Japan itself is one of the beneficiaries of the US ban on Chinese semiconductors.
In early June this year, the Japan Economic News disclosed that in the first quarter of this year, Japan's total exports of semiconductor equipment to China reached 521.2 billion yen, the highest since 2007, and accounted for more than 50% of Japan's exports to China for three consecutive quarters.
According to the Japanese side, these semiconductor equipment exported to China are mainly used to manufacture "general-purpose semiconductors", and the technical level is generally not high, and the relevant processes are above 14 nanometers, which are outside the semiconductor ban announced by Japan.
However, domestic manufacturers in China are "transforming", so the demand for imported such equipment is very high.
And if the Biden administration further restricts the export of semiconductors to China, then the export of these "general-purpose semiconductors" will also be stopped as soon as possible, and the Japanese government will lose a huge amount of fiscal revenue, which is absolutely unacceptable for Japan, especially at this juncture.
Although Shinzo Abe has died, the negative effects of "Abenomics" are gradually emerging, and the monetary easing policy has led to an accelerated depreciation of the yen, but under the attack of foreign financial capital, the depreciation of the yen has long been out of the established track. Under this premise, if Japan's exports contract further and the government does not have enough fiscal surpluses to boost market confidence, it will only be a matter of time before a financial crisis erupts, and it is not impossible to enter the next "lost decade."
Japan itself is a small country, not a resource-exporting country, and the automobile industry is shrinking, only semiconductor manufacturing equipment with high added value can "breathe back", and only China has such a huge market that can bring huge economic benefits to Japan.
Therefore, Japan has shown a very cautious attitude towards the trilateral talks between Japan, the United States, and South Korea, so the three parties have not been able to reach a consensus.
Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ken Saito, said after a meeting with officials from both countries that participants at the enlarged meeting had expressed "great interest" in China's "traditional chip overcapacity."
This is almost a reminder to China that the butcher's knife of the United States may no longer be limited to cutting-edge semiconductors, or will relax the scope of the crackdown, including low-end chips produced in China into the sanctions, under the pretext of this tried and tested "overcapacity".
But this has undoubtedly shaken Japan's interests, which also happens to make a profit by maintaining and exporting these low-end manufacturing equipment, and this profit accounts for a large part of Japan's fiscal revenue, in other words, Saito Ken is also implicitly expressing his dissatisfaction with the United States.