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Source: Hawkeye Defence
Author: Hawkeye Defence
Let's talk about the battlefield changes first.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have captured the settlement of Razdolovka, which is located north of Soledar and leads north to the direction of Seversk in the Donetsk region. However, the Ukrainian side has not confirmed the loss of the settlement, and the Deep State shows that the Russian army attacked the settlement on the 13th and 14th, but the map still shows that it is almost completely a gray area. That is, we are not yet able to confirm that Russian troops have captured the settlement of Razdolovka.
The area with the most intense fighting is Chasiv Yar, to be precise, the Siversky Donets-Donbass Canal area, where the 24th Brigade of the Ukrainian Army defending here claimed that the Russian army had launched a continuous offensive, including the Airborne Forces, special forces and the "Storm V" death squad, all of which were thrown into the battle, but the Russian attacks were all repulsed, however, the Ukrainian army also admitted that they needed more artillery and drone support.
And in the Kharkiv region, the battle line has also not changed significantly, people began to pay attention to the serious losses of the Russian army here, Forbes magazine said that the 83rd Airborne Brigade of the Russian army was finally forced to retreat from Vovchansk after three weeks of fierce fighting, the Russian army suffered serious losses here, there are many soldiers who have lost their combat effectiveness and refused to participate in the war, however, the Russian army trapped in the Vovchansk building materials plant is still insisting on fighting and refusing to surrender.
Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, posted on "X" a description of the fighting in Kharkiv by a captured Russian soldier named Ivan Ivanovich Mikrov, from the town of Diolozhersk in Vologda region, with the call sign "Sinetok", who was responsible for transporting the bodies of the wounded and dead of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region. According to his description, the Russian army suffered catastrophic losses in Kharkov, and there were corpses of Russian troops everywhere, "lying there rotting, corpses everywhere, no matter where you go, they are not covered and they are not buried." ”
In addition, Ivan Ivanovich Mikrov spoke about the experience of one of his comrades-in-arms, who called "Kit", "He has difficulty walking, he has problems with his legs. They shot him so that he would not be a burden......"
We cannot confirm the veracity of what Ivan Ivanovich Mikrov has described, but what we can be sure of is that the Kharkiv offensive launched by the Russian army again has come to an end, and it has not achieved President Putin's goal of establishing a "sanitary zone" in the Kharkiv region to protect Belgorod, but has prompted the US government to lift restrictions on the use of weapons, allowing Ukrainian forces to use other US weapons other than ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles to attack military targets in Russia. Including military targets on the territory of Belgorod.
The New York Times called May 2024 a "particularly deadly month" for the Russian army, with data from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, the United Kingdom, the United States and other Western intelligence agencies all showing that Russian troops suffered an average of more than 1,000 casualties per day in May. However, anonymous Western officials told The New York Times that the Russian Ministry of Defense is basically able to make up for the casualties of Russian troops on the front line, and the Russian Ministry of Defense is still able to recruit 25,000 to 30,000 people a month, which allows the Russian army to maintain the "crowd" tactic. (According to the war report released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, more than 50,000 Ukrainian troops can be "eliminated" basically every month)
The New York Times pointed out that the Russian army's "crowd" tactic, which consumes a lot of resources regardless of the loss of personnel and equipment, has been effective in many places, such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka, however, in Kharkiv, this tactic has failed: the Ukrainian army initially made a lot of mistakes even in Kharkiv, allowing the Russian army to easily cross the border, but with the adjustment of tactics and the increase in firepower, the Russian army's "crowd" tactics have become less effective in Kharkiv.
In addition to the Ukrainian army's own factors, the difficulties or defeats encountered by the Russian army in the Kharkiv region are largely due to the help of supporters: the US government allows the Ukrainian army to use other American weapons other than ATACMS ballistic missiles to strike military targets in Russia and disrupt the assembly and logistics system of the Russian army; The arrival of a large amount of US military aid has greatly increased the firepower of the Ukrainian army, especially the artillery firepower.
AFP reported that the supply of ammunition to the Ukrainian army has improved significantly, especially in recent weeks, and the sergeant of the Ukrainian army, who called "Lentik", said that "after about a month, the situation has changed for the better and continues to get better, at least in terms of 155 mm caliber shells", and his unit, which previously could only fire 6 shells per day per artillery, has now risen to 40 rounds, and in areas where the fighting is most intense, such as Kharkiv, there are simply no restrictions at all.
The Ukrainian army's 2S7 "Peony" launched American-made M105203 millimeter caliber high-explosive shells, and with the restoration of the U.S. military circle, the Ukrainian army's large-caliber howitzer spoke again.
A source in the General Staff of the Ukrainian army told AFP that with the arrival of a large amount of Western military aid, the firepower gap between the Russian and Ukrainian armies has been significantly narrowed, and this change is beneficial to the Ukrainian army, at present, the artillery firepower ratio of the Russian and Ukrainian armies is about 3:1, and in the most difficult times in the past, the artillery firepower ratio of the Russian and Ukrainian armies was 10:1, and even 20:1 in some areas.
Let's take a look at the battle beyond the front lines. According to sources in the Ukrainian military, the Ukrainian army used ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles with cluster warheads to destroy the radar of Russia's latest S-500 air defense system deployed at the Zhankoy base in Crimea, and a little earlier, the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence, Lieutenant General Budanov, announced that the Russian army deployed the S-500 to Crimea, which is Russia's newest air defense system and costs up to $600 million.
So far, we have not seen the official announcement of the Ukrainian military, nor have we seen the live video, but NASA satellites have detected a fire at the Zhankoy airbase: the Zhankoy base has been hit by Ukrainian missiles continuously, and the S-400 and other air defense systems deployed here have been repeatedly destroyed. The Zhankoy base is very important for the Russian army, not only as a military base, but also as an important transportation hub, which needs to be protected by long-range air defense systems.
And with the 31st Brigade of the Ukrainian Army shooting down a Su-25 attack aircraft in the Donetsk region, according to the war report released by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, so far, the Ukrainian army has destroyed more than 30 Russian fighters this year, and the destruction here includes both shooting down and being hit on the ground, the most valuable of which includes 1 Su-57 fighter, 2 MiG-31 fighters, 2 Su-35 fighters, 13 Su-34 front-line bombers, 2 A-50 early warning aircraft, 1 Il-22M11 air command aircraft and 1 Tu-22M3 supersonic bomber.
The Strategic Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that there are some restrictions in the relevant areas of the release, the number of aircraft, models and modifications, as well as the location of the hit, are all temporary displays, and some Russian aircraft may not have been shot down although they were hit, such as the Il-22M11 air command aircraft, which successfully returned to the airport but needed long-term maintenance; In some cases, it is not possible to reliably identify the exact model of the aircraft that was hit, and the relevant information will be updated and supplemented at any time.
Finally, we want to say a news that has nothing to do with the battlefield in Ukraine, this news was published by the "Russian Satellite News Agency", but it only appeared in the international version of the "Russian Satellite News Agency", and it was not seen in its Chinese edition:
According to the international edition of the "Russian Satellite News Agency", Alexander Maksichev, co-director of the Russian-Indian joint venture "BrahMos" company, said at the "Fleet-2024" international maritime defense exhibition in St. Petersburg that "the first batch of BrahMos cruise missiles has been delivered to the Philippine Armed Forces, and the Philippine military leadership thanked the company for the timely performance of the contract, which includes missile delivery and personnel training." ”
What is going on with the "BrahMos" cruise missile, netizens should know that without Russia's technical support, this missile would not have been produced at all, not to mention that the "BrahMos" company that produces missiles is a Russian-Indian joint venture. In addition to the Philippines, which has already acquired the first batch of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam are also interested in this missile with strong Russian roots. We don't comment too much.