#精品长文创作季#
Not long ago, Vietnam's leading real estate leader, the richest woman, Truong My Lan, was arrested by the Vietnamese prosecutor's office on suspicion of embezzlement of $12 billion in assets and other illegal crimes, and asked the court to sentence her to death for many crimes.
The arrest of Truong My Lan shook the top level of the Vietnamese government, and the Vietnamese president and deputy prime minister announced their resignations one after another, causing a wave of public opinion among the Vietnamese people, which lasted for a long time.
The volatility of Vietnam's real estate and its political turmoil have undoubtedly dealt a huge blow to the previously fast-growing Vietnamese economy, especially in the real estate industry, where many real estate developers have been implicated and suffered huge economic losses.
Some people say that Vietnam's economy may repeat the mistakes of Japan's real estate bubble and become the first Asian country to collapse due to economic recession in the 21st century. Does Vietnam still have a chance to turn around?
1. The development process of real estate in Vietnam
As we know, Vietnam is a country that has joined ASEAN, and its strength can be said to be one of the best in ASEAN, not only in terms of military affairs, but also in terms of economy.
A considerable part of Vietnam's economy is driven by the real estate industry, and as early as 2003, Vietnam officially promulgated the Land Law, laying the foundation for the development of the real estate industry.
In 2003, Vietnam's urbanization rate was still very low, which provided a lot of potential for real estate development. As a result, the Vietnamese government decided to encourage the development of the real estate industry and relaxed restrictions for the real estate industry in many policies.
After Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007, Vietnam's real estate market ushered in a period of rapid development.
A large amount of foreign capital has flowed into Vietnam, which has contributed to Vietnam's development. Housing prices in important cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City rose rapidly, even surpassing the level of housing prices in some Chinese cities at the time.
Zhang Meilan, the richest woman in Vietnam mentioned at the beginning, also enjoyed the "dividends of the times" at that time, and her real estate business began to flourish.
Perhaps because her ancestors were Chaoshan people, Zhang Meilan had the same good business acumen and diligent spirit as Chaoshan people, and fought her way in the fierce real estate market, and finally she got her wish to sit on the throne of the richest man.
Sometimes, though, it's not a good thing that things move too quickly.
As mentioned earlier, the Vietnamese government has given the green light to the real estate industry in terms of policy, so some real estate developers have gradually begun to secretly engage in fraud, collude with government officials, and even get officials to acquiesce in their violation of loan regulations, so that the development of real estate is increasingly free from the restrictions and control of the Vietnamese government.
Zhang Meilan's real estate business is also indispensable in the process of development, and government officials are also indispensable to "secretly help", embezzlement, bribery and violation of regulations have become commonplace for her.
However, Truong My Lan was eventually caught by the Vietnamese prosecutor's office, and with the death sentence delivered to her, her business empire eventually became a ruin.
Some other unscrupulous real estate businessmen have also pleaded guilty and surrendered themselves by the Vietnamese procuratorate's "killing chickens and monkeys" operation, hoping to reduce their crimes, and do not want to "fall to the ground" like Zhang Meilan.
In this way, as the Vietnamese government began to adopt a series of policy measures to adjust the real estate industry, Vietnam's real estate can be regarded as temporarily stable.
However, a temporary stability can not make up for some problems in Vietnam's economic development for more than ten years, and the implementation of the new policy also needs time to precipitate the effect.
2. Will Vietnam follow in Japan's footsteps?
So, will Vietnam follow in Japan's footsteps? Some can't help but think so. In the 80s of the last century, in order to stimulate economic growth, Japan adopted a large number of policies to support Japanese real estate investment.
Low interest rates and easy credit have allowed Japan's real estate industry to flourish.
Due to the scarcity of land resources in Japan, especially in major urban areas, the supply of land is severely insufficient. Land prices have risen rapidly, further pushing up property prices.
This makes real estate developers make a lot of money, and the financial sector also "gets a share of the cake" and tastes the benefits, and the stock market is also booming, and most people follow the trend to speculate in stocks and get rich overnight.
At that time, Japanese investors were very optimistic about the future of the real estate market, believing that as long as the real estate market did not fall, the stock market would be a bull market every day and would not be afraid to fall.
However, the United States, on the other side of the ocean, has seen that its "little brother" is "too nourished," but it has suffered a lot of setbacks to the economy because of the trade deficit, and it has gradually become red-eyed.
As a result, the United States and Japan signed a "Plaza Accord" to make the yen appreciate sharply, and then their own dollar exchange rate against major currencies depreciated in an orderly manner to solve the problem of the United States' trade deficit.
As soon as the yen appreciates, the price of Japan's exports in the international market rises, and it gradually becomes too expensive to sell, thus curbing Japan's exports, but the appreciation also increases Japan's purchasing power, allowing it to buy more domestic goods for less money.
The richer they are, the more money Japanese will spend on stocks and houses, and if they go too far, there will be an oversupply in the market, and once there is a surplus, it will lead to a decline in housing prices.
The real estate bubble has been blowing bigger and bigger, but now housing prices are falling, houses can't be sold, and they can't make money, and they can't repay their previous loans, forming a vicious circle. And just like that, the beauty of economic prosperity was punctured like a bubble.
Since then, Japan's economy has fallen into a state of long-term stagnation, which has been called the "lost decade", but now it seems that there may be more than a "decade", because Japan's GDP is still tepid and has not improved much.
Looking back, compared with Japan's, Vietnam's economy has a different economic structure and different pitfalls. Vietnam's economic structure is dominated by manufacturing and export-oriented economy, while Japan's economy is dominated by the financial sector and advanced science and technology.
Vietnam stepped on its own hole, while Japan stepped on the hole dug by the United States. Vietnam has made some reforms after stepping on the pit, and the economy is still on the rise overall, while the Japanese economy has stagnated since the bubble economy.
Therefore, in general, I do not think that Vietnam will follow the old path of Japan, because the two systems are different, the economic structure is different, and the practices are different, and the differences are too great, and they will not "go the same way."
Having said that, it may take some time for Vietnam to recover its economy and bounce back on its feet.
3. How can Vietnam revitalize?
If you want to bounce back, you have to play to your strengths. Vietnam is a densely populated country with a population of more than 100 million.
In recent years, Vietnam has always had the ambition to replace China as the "world factory", but the "world factory" is not so easy to do, and now most of the foreign parts assembly and processing are still in charge of China.
Although Vietnam's manufacturing industry has developed significantly over the years, it is a pity that the large eastern countries next to it are larger than it, and the manufacturing industry is more advanced than it. Therefore, Vietnam has to consider the relationship with China when developing its manufacturing industry.
Since others don't take the initiative to come and build a factory, can I just ask others to come myself?
In recent years, Vietnam has revitalized its own industries by strengthening cooperation with other countries, while building closer economic ties with neighboring countries to attract foreign investment and technology. This has made Vietnam's industry more and more noticeable to other countries.
In order to revitalize its own real estate market, the Vietnamese government also needs to reform some of its land and real estate policies.
Save the development of your own real estate industry and get the economic train back on track. The Vietnamese government also needs to strengthen the supervision of the financial market to prevent the emergence of a second "Truong My Lan" in the real estate sector.
The recent "blood exchange" of the Vietnamese government has also cleaned up most of those officials who only eat white rice and do nothing, and at the same time, the balance of factions between the north and the south has also laid the cornerstone for Vietnam's political and economic development.
Vietnam can also vigorously develop tourism, and compared to other Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam is relatively safer in social security.
The territory of Vietnam is almost completely seafront, with stunning beaches, rainforests and diverse folk culture, as well as the hospitality of the Vietnamese people and the different cuisines to enjoy.
IV. Conclusion
In short, Vietnam needs to consider its economic development from all aspects, and cannot always hang from the tree of real estate.
Strengthening financial regulation, diversifying the economy, strengthening international cooperation, reforming real estate policies, and improving transparency and fairness are the ways to save Vietnam's economy.
Although the real estate industry can quickly promote economic growth and create a large number of jobs, blindly over-development will only breed the phenomenon of "speculation", as well as bribery and corruption, so that the people cannot afford to buy houses, miserable, and the people are not able to make a living.
We cannot gloat or remain indifferent to Vietnam's current economic woes, and we need to learn from this crisis and think about how to avoid another real estate explosion.
Only by developing high quality and improving total factor productivity can we solve social problems by making people's lives better, rather than just "making money" for the sake of "making money".
Looking back at Vietnam's development in recent years, Vietnam was once considered a rising star in Asia's economic development, and although it has now suffered a series of blows and faced some setbacks in the stock market, currency and real estate markets, I believe it will stand up again.
While economic recovery and stability will not happen overnight, it will take time, patience and wisdom to develop. In the end, Vietnam's economy will still make great strides. Is there anything you would like to say about this?