The share price of Oriental Fortune hit back 4 years ago, and brokerage stocks and software stocks dived in relay, is it really a small composition?

Finance Associated Press

2024-06-28 20:00The official account of Cailianshe under Shanghai Poster Industry Group

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On June 28, the financial software sector and brokerage stocks collectively dived, and Oriental Fortune fell 6.88%, and the stock price fell back to four years ago.

02 Market rumors include whether the brokerage's self-examination of the IP of the relative's account is consistent with the employee, the impact of the third phase of the rate reform after the end of the second phase of the rate reform, and rumors such as salary cuts and bonus refunds.

03However, some market participants believe that the above rumors are unreliable and expected.

04 Sell-side researchers firmly believe that no matter what kind of rumors, the allocation value of brokerage stocks is still worth favoring.

05 The plunge in the share price of Oriental Fortune has attracted widespread attention, and the company's operation and management are normal.

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Finance Associated Press, June 28 (Reporter Gao Yanyun) This afternoon, the financial software sector and brokerage stocks led by Dongcai collectively dived, causing widespread attention.

On June 28, near 2:00 p.m., financial software stocks including Oriental Wealth, Fortune Trend, and Flush took the lead in diving, and then brokerage stocks "jumped with it", as of the close, Oriental Fortune fell 6.88%, and the stock price fell back to four years ago; Compass fell 5.28%, Fortune Trend fell 5.16%, Straight Flush fell 3.71%, and Great Wisdom fell 2.8%; Among the 50 brokerage stocks, 48 closed in the green.

There are many rumors in the market, one is that the brokerage company self-checks whether the IP of the relative's account is consistent with the employee, the second is that the market is worried about the impact of the subsequent third phase of the rate reform, and the third is the rumor of salary reduction and bonus refund.

However, some market participants believe that the above rumours are unreliable and expected. Some sell-side sources also said that the relevant rumors may lead investors to worry about the shrinking scale of the industry's business and the decline in profitability. But more sell-side researchers firmly believe that no matter what the rumors, the allocation value of brokerage stocks is still worth favoring.

It is worth noting that the plunge in the share price of Oriental Fortune has attracted widespread attention, and the popularity of the stock has entered the hot search on Weibo. The company's operating conditions have also attracted the attention of investors, and the staff of Oriental Fortune told reporters that the company's operation and management are normal.

Dongcai dived back to four years ago

Financial software stocks and brokerage stocks successively performed in the afternoon to line up for diving.

At 13:50 on June 28, financial software stocks took the lead in falling rapidly, and at 13:58, related stocks dived together, among them, Oriental Fortune dived by a large margin, falling by 6.45% within ten minutes, and the wealth trend was amplitude of 5.4% in 4 minutes from 13:58 to 14:02, and the largest decline in the afternoon of Flush reached 6.38%. In addition, Compass shares plunged earlier, from 10:38 to 10:45 in the morning, with a diving amplitude of 4.65%.

Brokerage stocks dived later and weaker than the financial software sector, but there were also some stocks in the end of the period of a large decline, Everbright Securities fell by 6.64% in the afternoon, Capital Securities fell by 4.43%, and China Securities Construction Investment fell by 3.32%.

As of the close, in the financial software sector, Compass fell 5.28%, Wealth Trend fell 5.16%, Flush fell 3.71%, and Great Wisdom fell 2.8%; In terms of brokerage stocks, among the 50 brokerage stocks, 48 closed in the green, only Zheshang Securities and Harbin Investment shares rose slightly to close in the red, and as many as 18 brokerage stocks fell by more than 2%, and Oriental Wealth, which has both financial software and brokerage concepts, closed down 6.88%, and the top 5 brokerage stocks were Huaxin shares (-3.99%), Everbright Securities (-3.82%), Capital Securities (-3.54%), China Securities Construction Investment (-3.22%), and CICC (-2.76%).

CATL (791.9 billion yuan, down 2.69%) and Oriental Fortune (166.7 billion yuan), which are the first and third largest in terms of market capitalization on the GEM, closed down 1.16% due to the decline of two stocks.

In terms of transaction status, Oriental Fortune traded 4.526 billion yuan, an increase of 206.7% from the previous trading day. The total turnover of 50 brokerage stocks was 20.331 billion yuan, an increase of 81.47% from the previous trading day. The other two stocks with higher turnover were CITIC Securities and Capital Securities, with a turnover of 1.301 billion yuan and 1.174 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 30.59% and 27.36% respectively from the previous trading day.

Oriental Fortune's share price returned to 4 years ago, with today's closing price of 10.56 yuan, which is comparable to June 29, 2020, when the closing price was 10.52 yuan.

In addition, Fortune Trend received the regulatory work letter of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the company's staff responded to the media that the company is currently aware of the specific content of the regulatory work letter, but it has nothing to do with today's stock price decline.

Rumors swirled

The market blamed the sharp drop in financial software and brokerage stocks on a number of rumors.

Related rumors say:

First, the brokerage self-checked whether the IP of the relative's account was consistent with the employee, and it was a five-year backcheck and was fired in violation of regulations, which affected Oriental Fortune and stock trading software companies;

Second, the second phase of the rate reform has ended, and the market is worried about the impact of the subsequent third phase of the rate reform;

Third, rumors such as salary cuts and bonus refunds have caused everyone to worry about the sector.

Some industry insiders said that even if the above rumors happened, they were all expected.

Ran Zhaobang, an analyst at Cinda Securities, said that according to the "Regulations on the Management of Securities Transaction Costs of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on April 19, the document will be officially implemented and effective from July 1, and this Friday is the last trading day before the document takes effect. This document is also the second phase of the three-step plan of the CSRC's "public offering fee reform" plan ("manager-securities company-sales agency") in July 2023. According to the commission reduction standard issued by the regulator, the transaction commission rate of passive equity fund products shall not exceed 2.62/10,000, and other types shall not exceed 5.24/10,000. Coupled with the current rumors of salary cuts and bonus refunds of brokers/public funds, and the third phase of the "public offering fee reform" may be expected, or investors may have concerns about the contraction of the industry's business scale and the decline in profitability.

Ran Zhaobang believes that on the one hand, the current decline in institutional trading commission rates has little impact on the profitability of the securities industry. Previously, it was estimated in the relevant report that the institutional commission was reduced from 8 million to 5 thousand, and the reduction in transaction commission was roughly equivalent to 2% of the industry's revenue. On the other hand, from the perspective of overseas experience, the decline in mutual fund rates first hit the channel side, but also catalyzed the formation of institutionalization and buy-side investment advisory mechanisms, and the scale of mutual funds continued to increase.

"At present, the valuation of the brokerage industry has been at a historically low level, but the asset quality of the brokerage is reliable, and the brokerage sector with PB close to 1 has strong allocation value." Ran Zhaobang is determined.

Sell-side: The pressure on the securities business has eased marginally

Chen Fu, chief analyst of GF Securities Non-bank, pointed out in the research report that due to the pressure on some businesses and the tightening of the regulatory environment, the securities industry has encountered dual pressures on performance and valuation, and the business still has some pressure, but it shows a marginal easing trend. The nine new measures have promoted the improvement of the investability of the capital market, and the current capital market reform has laid a solid foundation for a steady recovery in the future. In the new environment, the industry structure will continue to be optimized, and investment opportunities will be nurtured, and the optimization of industry supervision will promote the high-quality development of the capital market and enhance the investability and stability. At present, the sector is undervalued and underweighted, waiting for the market environment to improve, and the supply-side reform of the industry is expected to restart.

Xu Yizhou, chief analyst of Industrial Securities Non-bank, pointed out in the research report that the current is standing at the starting point of the new policy cycle. The stock selection recommendation focuses on two main lines, one is the company with room for expansion in valuation, and recommends the brokerage with strong comprehensive ability; Second, companies with long-term profitable growth, recommend brokerages that are expected to enhance their comprehensive competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the improvement of overseas liquidity, and the scarce targets at the wealth management channel end.

Cinda Securities Research Report said that in addition to paying attention to the adverse impact of short-term performance brought about by strict supervision, it is also necessary to pay attention to the positive impact of the improvement of the capital market mechanism on the asset quality of securities companies. It is recommended to pay attention to brokerages with low valuations, which are expected to benefit from the improvement of their ability to use the table and the increase in the proportion of non-directional proprietary business.

(Finance Associated Press reporter Gao Yanyun)

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