2930 points "moat" exerted its power, and the national team suddenly counterattacked in an all-round defense
Today's news:
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively overnight, with the Dow up 0.09%, the Nasdaq up 0.3%, and the S&P 500 up 0.09%. Popular technology stocks were mixed, with Amazon up more than 2% and Nvidia down nearly 2%. Computer hardware, solar energy, and software applications were among the top gainers, while industrial metals and mining, and coal were among the top decliners.
Since the beginning of this year, the A-share market has been volatile and adjusted, and as of June 27, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Index have fallen by 0.98%, 7.09%, and 9.95% respectively. Under the adjustment of the market, since the beginning of this year, the market liquidity has been loose, and incremental funds from northbound funds, ETFs, and buybacks of listed companies have actively entered the market. Wind data shows that as of June 26, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds during the year was 44.587 billion yuan, the funds flowing into the market through ETFs exceeded 390 billion yuan, and the repurchase amount of listed companies reached 97.652 billion yuan. Analysts believe that since the beginning of the year, the marginal improvement of A-share capital has improved, and the scale of capital supply in the second half of the year is expected to improve slightly compared with the first half of the year. Among them, the scale of insurance funds entering the market may expand with the improvement of premium income, and foreign capital is expected to have a small net inflow.
[In May, the scale of public funds hit a new high of 31.24 trillion yuan, and the debt base contributed the largest increment] According to data disclosed by the AMAC at the end of May, the total scale of public funds hit a new high of 31.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 464.814 billion yuan or 1.5% month-on-month. This is the second consecutive month of record scale. Among them, the bond base contributed the largest increase in scale, with the scale increasing by 322.784 billion yuan to 6.46 trillion yuan in May, and the cargo base also increased by 235.42 billion yuan to 13.67 trillion yuan in May. The equity and hybrid funds fell by 40.731 billion yuan and 55.337 billion yuan respectively in May, and the scale as of the end of May was 3.14 trillion yuan and 3.66 trillion yuan.
Compared with the first three weeks of June, equity ETFs continued to receive large funds this week, with a cumulative net inflow of nearly 30 billion yuan, significantly ahead of the previous level. The number of fund shares of broad-based ETFs such as Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF Initiator has also hit a record high since its inception. As of June 26, the net inflow scale of equity ETFs has exceeded 390 billion yuan this year, an increase of more than two times compared with the same period last year, significantly higher than the historical level of the same period, and has become an important source of incremental funds in the market. ChinaAMC expects that the market may continue to find a balance in the interweaving of long and short factors. However, with the increase of policy support and the landing of blockbuster meetings, many optimistic signals are also brewing, which is expected to bring new upward momentum to A-shares.
As of June 27, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 770.258 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.797 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 684.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.592 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1454.494 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.389 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
This morning, the market opened 5 points lower at 2940 points, bottomed out at 2939 points, rushed higher at 2980 points, and closed at 2974 points before noon. SSE 50, CSI 300, SSE Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, STAR Market, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose 0.45%, 0.64%, 0.98%, 0.86%, 0.37%, 0.57%, 1.14% and 1.70%. The ratio of individual stocks is 4527:695, and the ratio of price limit is 43:8. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 405.5 billion, an increase of 18.7 billion from the previous trading day.
At noon on Tuesday, at 2930 o'clock, Xiao Essay reported that according to the Financial Associated Press, the new village chief convened the national team, institutions and several head brokerages in the afternoon of the same day to hold a rescue meeting. In the afternoon of the same day, the market rose sharply, rising 2976 points to close at 2972 points. Due to the lack of any good news that night and Wednesday morning, the market blog news fell sharply, and the market fell sharply on Wednesday, with more than 4,700 stocks falling. However, no one expected that at 9:37 this morning, after the market bottomed out at 2939 points, it was like a heavenly soldier, pulling up 11 indices in an all-round way, rushing up 2980 points, and closing at 2974 points before noon. The highs moved up again, and more than 4,500 stocks rose.
The 3-day rollercoaster trend shows that:
(1) In order to prevent the loss of the 2,900-point integer level and fall back to the new village chief's position of 2,829 points, the national team must build a "moat" around 2,930 points, and it cannot be broken for at least 3 consecutive days. Judging from the trend of the last 4 days, this view seems to be valid.
(2) Changing the practice of only sticking to the four major bank stocks in the early stage, the national team took the lead with Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF this morning to launch a comprehensive defensive counterattack against 11 indexes. Especially for the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, which have fallen the most recently, the half-day volume increase is the largest. As a result, small and medium-capitalization growth stocks led the market, and the market showed a comprehensive wealth effect.
(3) In the face of the Federal Reserve's postponement of interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, the yen exchange rate hit a record low, and the offshore yuan fell below 7.30 yuan; northbound funds have had a net outflow of 55.4 billion yuan for 14 consecutive trading days since June 17; With the help of the National People's Congress to complete the second review of the Financial Stability Law, the national team's all-out counterattack seems to be quite planned.
Of course, whether the national team's counterattack is sustainable or not needs to be verified by next week's trend.
Today is the end of the weekend, the end of the month, the end of the second quarter, and the end of the half year, and it seems that the weekly line is likely to be six consecutive yin (last week closed at 2998 points), but a weekly yin line with a long lower shadow. The monthly line is two consecutive negative, and the semi-annual line (3004 points) is also negative. Can next week (July) overshoot and rebound, and can it turn over seven times? Or take 2933 points as a starting point to start the second wave of growth this year? It remains to be seen.
The morning trading volume increased by 18.7 billion compared with yesterday morning, and there was an intervention in the follow-up market, mainly because of whether it would be beneficial to introduce it on the weekend of the expo, such as the cessation of short selling of securities lending, the short selling of the restriction period and the introduction of a compensation mechanism for the delisting of listed companies in violation of regulations.
Afternoon attention: Can the market close below the monthly support level of 2965 points? Can the upper side close above 2980? Can the national team continue to fight back against Huatai Pineapple CSI 300 ETF? 4527:695 The disparity between individual stocks can be maintained? Can the trading volume be above 650 billion?