The current situation is turbulent, disputes around the world are continuous, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is intensifying, and the situation in the Middle East is intensifying. At the same time, China has been frequently provoked by its neighbors and mired in international disputes.
However, despite the frequent adjustments to China on the surface, the small countries around China resolutely did not fire the first shot, but tacitly picked up cold weapons to confront them! So what are the bad consequences of "firing the first shot" in terms of international disputes, and what challenges will the mainland face in the face of the severe global situation in the future?
1. The situation around China is tense
The current international situation can be described as chaotic and tense, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began in 2022, has not yet been resolved, and the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated again, with the conflict between Israel and Palestine causing tens of thousands of casualties and more than one million people being displaced!
Moreover, Israel's recent war situation has intensified, and in addition to the outbreak of conflicts with Palestine, it has also launched fierce conflicts with Lebanon and Syria, and has frequently provoked its neighbors.
Although the mainland is far from the core of the war and conflict, China is also facing frequent provocations around it. Among them, the most arrogant and domineering is the Philippines, where Philippine fishing boats have violated the law of national territorial sovereignty several times and entered the mainland waters to conduct illegal exploration!
Moreover, the Philippines continues to send supplies to Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, attempting to use the stranded Sierra Madre as a base to carry out large-scale infrastructure construction work on Second Thomas Shoal.
As early as the beginning of the 21st century, the Philippines showed a fierce attitude towards the South China Sea, and even took advantage of the bombing of the Yugoslav embassy on the mainland to send the Sierra Madre to run aground on Ren'ai Jiao when it was unable to take into account the South China Sea issue.
The essential reason why the Philippines is full of covetousness in the South China Sea is due to the rich geological resources and superior geographical location of the South China Sea archipelago.
It can be said that in today's international trade, the South China Sea, as an important trade route connecting East Asia with Europe and Africa, has extremely high transportation value.
In addition, the rich geological resources of the South China Sea Islands are also eye-catching for the Philippines. Although the Philippines knows that it is not reasonable, it still slaps back in the international community and slanders China for carrying out military strikes on Philippine fishing boats!
Even Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has vented his bitterness to the international media and slandered the Chinese military and police.
The fact is that the mainland has not taken any military attack, and the Philippine ships that have entered the country illegally have only used water guns to expel them.
Under the accusation of international public opinion that the truth is not clear, the mainland coast guard has adjusted its demobilization method and replaced all weapons and equipment with sticks and sticks of cold weapons for deterrence.
At the same time, the Philippine side has also reached a wonderful tacit understanding, and all the surrounding military forces are equipped with cold weapons, and no one wants to fire the first shot of the outbreak of war!
In addition to the Philippines, India is also a country with conflicts with the mainland, and the military forces of the two countries broke out in the Wanhe Valley region in 2020.
However, with the successful completion of the border negotiations between the two countries, the military activities of the two sides were somewhat restrained, and neither side was willing to take the initiative to provoke disputes again.
So why are countries around the world so afraid of firing the first shot in an international dispute, and what kind of bad impact will it have if the mainland fires the first shot in a dispute with a small neighboring country?
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2. The reasons why countries resolutely refrain from firing the first shot
The reason why all countries are reluctant to fire the first shot at the outbreak of war is that they are most afraid of being in a "right-loser" position in international affairs, and thus being accused and "judged" by various countries.
Due to the continuous growth of the world's nuclear weapons strength after World War II, if the border relationship cannot be well maintained, it will lead to frequent wars, which will lead to large-scale war conflicts, and even the possibility of nuclear weapons wars.
Therefore, in order to avoid the uncontrollable war situation, the world is now advocating peaceful ways to solve problems, and various countries have reached a tacit understanding. Therefore, all countries in the world will not take the initiative to fire the first shot of war, and this is also to avoid making their own countries become "sinners" who provoke wars and thus be severely condemned by the international community.
And if a country fires the first shot of the war, it will be identified as the instigator of the war, and thus will be targeted by other countries, just like Russia, which is now mired in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In addition, for neighboring countries such as the Philippines and India, although they have conflicts with China due to territorial and territorial conflicts of interest, they are not willing to really tear their faces with China.
There is a clear gap in the military strength of the two sides, and the mainland definitely has the strength of its neighbor to fire the first shot, and not let it fire the second shot.
Moreover, for countries such as the Philippines and India, they do not intend to fight against China, and their provocations on China's border are more at the behest of the United States.
As the two most powerful superpowers in the world today, the United States is deeply jealous of China's rise.
Therefore, the United States instigated the Philippines, India and other countries to carry out border provocations against China in an attempt to distract China's economic development, plunge China into the vortex of war, and slow down the pace of economic development.
Therefore, even though the Philippines has jumped up and down in the South China Sea issue in recent years, the essence is to show its attitude and position in exchange for US military assistance and economic subsidies.
And the Philippines itself has made it clear that as long as it does not take the initiative to launch an armed attack, the mainland will not take the initiative to attack it.
This is due to the fact that the mainland, as a military power in the world, has a huge disparity in status with the Philippines.
In the face of the Philippine provocation, once it takes the initiative to attack, it will be coerced by the public opinion of the international community, which will reprimand China for relying on military strength to bully the small.
If this happens, then it is playing into the hands of the United States! It can unite with NATO and other countries to impose economic, military, scientific and technological sanctions on China, and instigate other countries to isolate China.
Russia is due to the outbreak of war with Ukraine, which has led to a boycott by Europe and the United States, a sharp reduction in foreign exchange trade, and a collapse crisis in the economic system!
Therefore, under all kinds of concerns, the mainland has reached a strange tacit understanding with the surrounding small countries to abide by the rules of the game set by China. Replace hot weapons with cold weapons and hold their troops on hold to avoid further intensification of contradictions.
Moreover, the damage ability of cold weapons is limited, and even if a conflict breaks out, it will not easily lead to casualties.
Although all countries in the world today are very restrained in their handling of conflicts and disputes between countries, there is one country that is an outlier among them, not only frequently using weapons of mass destruction, but also constantly provoking international disputes, and that country is the United States.
Why, then, does the United States never abide by the norms governing the peaceful handling of international issues, and what kind of changes will its actions lead to in the future global situation?
3. Future global development and changes under the intensification of contradictions
The two large-scale wars that broke out around the world in the 20th century had an extremely bad impact on the lives of ordinary people, and even more so caused the tragic end of countless innocent people to suffer from displacement. Therefore, the attitude of all countries towards war is very restrained and unwilling to take the initiative to provoke war, but in fact the international situation is always tense.
Whether it was the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union in the middle of the last century, or the fierce competition for oil resources since the beginning of the 21st century, which led to the continuous outbreak of conflicts in the Middle East, all of them posed a threat to the lives of innocent civilians.
Most countries around the world have been more restrained in their approach to war, with the exception of the United States.
It wantonly stirs up international disputes, thereby deteriorating the international situation and intensifying contradictions, so as to achieve its own goals.
So why does the United States continue to provoke contradictions, leading to the intensification and complexity of the international situation?
There are two main reasons why the United States continues to provoke international contradictions, one of which is that it needs international conflicts to find a market for a large number of weapons produced by the United States, so as to obtain high economic benefits and protect its position as the world's largest economy.
The second reason for the intensification of international contradictions is the plundering of oil resources in order to ensure the supremacy of the dollar.
The United States has gained the initiative in economic development by virtue of the policy advantages of the dollar tied to gold after World War II and the dollar tied to oil in the 70s of the last century, thus becoming the world's superpower today.
With its superpower status, the United States is fearless and frequently provokes the global situation, causing countless innocent people to suffer from war.
Therefore, for countries around the world, their impression of the United States is declining, and the status of the United States as the number one power will be challenged.
In the future, as countries around the world advocate peace, the "active defense" strategy of "not firing the first shot" advocated by the mainland will be respected and supported by more countries, thus ensuring the continuous growth of China's international reputation and posing a challenge to the status of the United States.
In the face of each other's strengths, America's maverick foreign policy will change the attitude of its followers, thus providing an opportunity for China to rise and take a more important voice in international affairs.
epilogue
Nowadays, the international situation is constantly strife, and the mainland border has been harassed by the Philippines, India and other countries. In the face of foreign incursions, the mainland calmly responded, resolutely did not fire the first shot at the outbreak of war, and adopted a peaceful foreign policy of active defense.
In contrast, the United States has an aggressive foreign policy of war, which will be resisted and condemned by countries around the world in the future, thus providing an opportunity for China's rise.
What do you have to say about the tacit understanding between China and its neighbors and resolutely not firing the first shot of war? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss.
Resources
China Ethics Online, August 19, 2020, "The Ethics of War: Why Not the First Shot?" 》
Global Network September 25, 2020 "Expert Advice: China Does Not Guarantee Not to Fire the First Shot"
Observer.com, February 21, 2021 "How to understand the active defense rather than active offensive strategy represented by "no first shot"? 》